Recent forecast model runs show substantial spread in the overnight minimum for Toronto on September 6, with ensembles split between a cooler northerly air mass and warmer southerly flow. Key drivers include the precise timing and strength of an approaching frontal boundary, cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that determine whether calm conditions allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. Historical early-September climatology places typical lows near 14–16 °C, so the near-even market odds between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in whether the coldest air arrives before or after the daily minimum is recorded. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 12–18 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 6?
20°C or higher 92%
13°C 49%
18°C 49%
19°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
-
11°C
10%
12°C
12%
13°C
49%
14°C
28%
15°C
29%
16°C
35%
17°C
27%
18°C
49%
19°C
49%
20°C or higher
92%
20°C or higher 92%
13°C 49%
18°C 49%
19°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$6 Vol.
-
11°C
$0 Vol.
10%
12°C
$0 Vol.
12%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
29%
16°C
$0 Vol.
35%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show substantial spread in the overnight minimum for Toronto on September 6, with ensembles split between a cooler northerly air mass and warmer southerly flow. Key drivers include the precise timing and strength of an approaching frontal boundary, cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that determine whether calm conditions allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. Historical early-September climatology places typical lows near 14–16 °C, so the near-even market odds between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in whether the coldest air arrives before or after the daily minimum is recorded. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 12–18 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show substantial spread in the overnight minimum for Toronto on September 6, with ensembles split between a cooler northerly air mass and warmer southerly flow. Key drivers include the precise timing and strength of an approaching frontal boundary, cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that determine whether calm conditions allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. Historical early-September climatology places typical lows near 14–16 °C, so the near-even market odds between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in whether the coldest air arrives before or after the daily minimum is recorded. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 12–18 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs show substantial spread in the overnight minimum for Toronto on September 6, with ensembles split between a cooler northerly air mass and warmer southerly flow. Key drivers include the precise timing and strength of an approaching frontal boundary, cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that determine whether calm conditions allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. Historical early-September climatology places typical lows near 14–16 °C, so the near-even market odds between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in whether the coldest air arrives before or after the daily minimum is recorded. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 12–18 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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