**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 15°C overnight into September 6 in Toronto, driven by clear skies under high pressure that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs of 23–24°C.** This aligns with seasonal normals (average low ~15.5°C) and recent observations showing overnight temperatures stabilizing around 15–17°C with light northerly winds and low precipitation chances. Trader emphasis on the 10°C-or-below bin (49.5% implied) likely reflects residual model spread or microclimate effects at the reporting station, while bins centered on 14–17°C capture the consensus range; higher thresholds remain low-probability given current conditions. Updated model runs and station data through the night will refine resolution as the minimum is realized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 6?
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
-
11°C
5%
12°C
12%
13°C
26%
14°C
27%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
26%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$11 Vol.
-
11°C
$5 Vol.
5%
12°C
$5 Vol.
12%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$85 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$55 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 15°C overnight into September 6 in Toronto, driven by clear skies under high pressure that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs of 23–24°C.**
This aligns with seasonal normals (average low ~15.5°C) and recent observations showing overnight temperatures stabilizing around 15–17°C with light northerly winds and low precipitation chances. Trader emphasis on the 10°C-or-below bin (49.5% implied) likely reflects residual model spread or microclimate effects at the reporting station, while bins centered on 14–17°C capture the consensus range; higher thresholds remain low-probability given current conditions. Updated model runs and station data through the night will refine resolution as the minimum is realized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$161End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 15°C overnight into September 6 in Toronto, driven by clear skies under high pressure that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs of 23–24°C.**
This aligns with seasonal normals (average low ~15.5°C) and recent observations showing overnight temperatures stabilizing around 15–17°C with light northerly winds and low precipitation chances. Trader emphasis on the 10°C-or-below bin (49.5% implied) likely reflects residual model spread or microclimate effects at the reporting station, while bins centered on 14–17°C capture the consensus range; higher thresholds remain low-probability given current conditions. Updated model runs and station data through the night will refine resolution as the minimum is realized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$161End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 15°C overnight into September 6 in Toronto, driven by clear skies under high pressure that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs of 23–24°C.** This aligns with seasonal normals (average low ~15.5°C) and recent observations showing overnight temperatures stabilizing around 15–17°C with light northerly winds and low precipitation chances. Trader emphasis on the 10°C-or-below bin (49.5% implied) likely reflects residual model spread or microclimate effects at the reporting station, while bins centered on 14–17°C capture the consensus range; higher thresholds remain low-probability given current conditions. Updated model runs and station data through the night will refine resolution as the minimum is realized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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