Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C minimum in Toronto on September 5, with 94% implied probability, driven by official observations from Environment Canada and regional stations showing a clear low near that threshold under clear, calm overnight conditions. Recent model runs and surface analyses confirmed stable high pressure with light northerly flow, yielding minimums consistent with seasonal norms around 15–17°C rather than cooler anomalies. Historical baselines for early September place typical lows near 15.6°C, supporting the tight clustering around 16°C. Minor probabilities for 15°C or lower reflect residual uncertainty in station-specific readings or post-processing adjustments, while scenarios that could shift the outcome include late data revisions from primary monitoring sites or discrepancies in how the absolute daily minimum is officially certified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 5?
16°C 99.5%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
10°C or below <1%
$1,202 Vol.
$1,202 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 99.5%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
10°C or below <1%
$1,202 Vol.
$1,202 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
$47 Vol.
No
11°C
$57 Vol.
No
12°C
$79 Vol.
No
13°C
$67 Vol.
No
14°C
$57 Vol.
No
15°C
$57 Vol.
No
16°C
$463 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$134 Vol.
No
18°C
$72 Vol.
No
19°C
$109 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$60 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C minimum in Toronto on September 5, with 94% implied probability, driven by official observations from Environment Canada and regional stations showing a clear low near that threshold under clear, calm overnight conditions. Recent model runs and surface analyses confirmed stable high pressure with light northerly flow, yielding minimums consistent with seasonal norms around 15–17°C rather than cooler anomalies. Historical baselines for early September place typical lows near 15.6°C, supporting the tight clustering around 16°C. Minor probabilities for 15°C or lower reflect residual uncertainty in station-specific readings or post-processing adjustments, while scenarios that could shift the outcome include late data revisions from primary monitoring sites or discrepancies in how the absolute daily minimum is officially certified.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,202End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C minimum in Toronto on September 5, with 94% implied probability, driven by official observations from Environment Canada and regional stations showing a clear low near that threshold under clear, calm overnight conditions. Recent model runs and surface analyses confirmed stable high pressure with light northerly flow, yielding minimums consistent with seasonal norms around 15–17°C rather than cooler anomalies. Historical baselines for early September place typical lows near 15.6°C, supporting the tight clustering around 16°C. Minor probabilities for 15°C or lower reflect residual uncertainty in station-specific readings or post-processing adjustments, while scenarios that could shift the outcome include late data revisions from primary monitoring sites or discrepancies in how the absolute daily minimum is officially certified.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,202End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C minimum in Toronto on September 5, with 94% implied probability, driven by official observations from Environment Canada and regional stations showing a clear low near that threshold under clear, calm overnight conditions. Recent model runs and surface analyses confirmed stable high pressure with light northerly flow, yielding minimums consistent with seasonal norms around 15–17°C rather than cooler anomalies. Historical baselines for early September place typical lows near 15.6°C, supporting the tight clustering around 16°C. Minor probabilities for 15°C or lower reflect residual uncertainty in station-specific readings or post-processing adjustments, while scenarios that could shift the outcome include late data revisions from primary monitoring sites or discrepancies in how the absolute daily minimum is officially certified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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