**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shenzhen on September 6, 2026, with limited overnight radiative cooling expected due to high humidity, cloud cover, and possible rain or thunderstorms.** Subtropical conditions in early September feature elevated dew points near 24–25°C that suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds and persistent moisture from nearby systems further moderate nighttime lows. Official and ensemble forecasts consistently show overnight readings stabilizing around 25–27°C rather than falling into the low 20s, reflecting typical climatology where September minima rarely dip below 24°C without a strong cold surge. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–26°C captures residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or shower activity, which could shift the recorded low by 1°C depending on local observation sites. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms in current model runs, while negligible odds above 27°C reflect the unlikelihood of sustained warmth overnight under humid, overcast skies. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or regional models will provide the next refinement ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 6?
22°C 80%
23°C 80%
24°C 80%
25°C 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
17%
22°C
80%
23°C
80%
24°C
80%
25°C
41%
26°C
39%
27°C
27%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
22°C 80%
23°C 80%
24°C 80%
25°C 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
80%
23°C
$0 Vol.
80%
24°C
$0 Vol.
80%
25°C
$1 Vol.
41%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$10 Vol.
27%
28°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,193 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shenzhen on September 6, 2026, with limited overnight radiative cooling expected due to high humidity, cloud cover, and possible rain or thunderstorms.**
Subtropical conditions in early September feature elevated dew points near 24–25°C that suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds and persistent moisture from nearby systems further moderate nighttime lows. Official and ensemble forecasts consistently show overnight readings stabilizing around 25–27°C rather than falling into the low 20s, reflecting typical climatology where September minima rarely dip below 24°C without a strong cold surge. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–26°C captures residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or shower activity, which could shift the recorded low by 1°C depending on local observation sites. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms in current model runs, while negligible odds above 27°C reflect the unlikelihood of sustained warmth overnight under humid, overcast skies. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or regional models will provide the next refinement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,339End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shenzhen on September 6, 2026, with limited overnight radiative cooling expected due to high humidity, cloud cover, and possible rain or thunderstorms.**
Subtropical conditions in early September feature elevated dew points near 24–25°C that suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds and persistent moisture from nearby systems further moderate nighttime lows. Official and ensemble forecasts consistently show overnight readings stabilizing around 25–27°C rather than falling into the low 20s, reflecting typical climatology where September minima rarely dip below 24°C without a strong cold surge. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–26°C captures residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or shower activity, which could shift the recorded low by 1°C depending on local observation sites. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms in current model runs, while negligible odds above 27°C reflect the unlikelihood of sustained warmth overnight under humid, overcast skies. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or regional models will provide the next refinement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,339End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shenzhen on September 6, 2026, with limited overnight radiative cooling expected due to high humidity, cloud cover, and possible rain or thunderstorms.** Subtropical conditions in early September feature elevated dew points near 24–25°C that suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds and persistent moisture from nearby systems further moderate nighttime lows. Official and ensemble forecasts consistently show overnight readings stabilizing around 25–27°C rather than falling into the low 20s, reflecting typical climatology where September minima rarely dip below 24°C without a strong cold surge. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–26°C captures residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or shower activity, which could shift the recorded low by 1°C depending on local observation sites. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms in current model runs, while negligible odds above 27°C reflect the unlikelihood of sustained warmth overnight under humid, overcast skies. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or regional models will provide the next refinement ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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