Latest numerical weather prediction runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Paris will experience clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 6 under a stable high-pressure regime, promoting moderate radiative cooling with light easterly to northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h. This setup supports minimum temperatures near 14–15 °C at official stations, though urban heat-island effects and subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14 °C. Historical September climatology places the average low near 12.6 °C, yet current conditions favor values slightly above that baseline. Traders are weighting the final Météo-France observation window, with any late-model cooling or wind shift capable of shifting resolution between the leading 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
13°C 58%
12°C 47%
14°C 32%
15°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
2%
11°C
3%
12°C
33%
13°C
44%
14°C
28%
15°C
7%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 58%
12°C 47%
14°C 32%
15°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
11°C
$0 Vol.
3%
12°C
$799 Vol.
33%
13°C
$586 Vol.
44%
14°C
$510 Vol.
28%
15°C
$21 Vol.
7%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
1%
18°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Paris will experience clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 6 under a stable high-pressure regime, promoting moderate radiative cooling with light easterly to northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h. This setup supports minimum temperatures near 14–15 °C at official stations, though urban heat-island effects and subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14 °C. Historical September climatology places the average low near 12.6 °C, yet current conditions favor values slightly above that baseline. Traders are weighting the final Météo-France observation window, with any late-model cooling or wind shift capable of shifting resolution between the leading 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,035End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Paris will experience clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 6 under a stable high-pressure regime, promoting moderate radiative cooling with light easterly to northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h. This setup supports minimum temperatures near 14–15 °C at official stations, though urban heat-island effects and subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14 °C. Historical September climatology places the average low near 12.6 °C, yet current conditions favor values slightly above that baseline. Traders are weighting the final Météo-France observation window, with any late-model cooling or wind shift capable of shifting resolution between the leading 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,035End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Paris will experience clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 6 under a stable high-pressure regime, promoting moderate radiative cooling with light easterly to northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h. This setup supports minimum temperatures near 14–15 °C at official stations, though urban heat-island effects and subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14 °C. Historical September climatology places the average low near 12.6 °C, yet current conditions favor values slightly above that baseline. Traders are weighting the final Météo-France observation window, with any late-model cooling or wind shift capable of shifting resolution between the leading 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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