**Market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus that the lowest temperature in Paris on September 5 will reach exactly 16°C.** Official forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and local analyses, indicate overnight minimums stabilizing near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds and dew points around 10–11°C. This aligns with the current synoptic pattern of high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions after daytime highs of 24–26°C. Historical averages for the date place the typical low at 12.7°C, so 2026 values sit notably above the 1991–2020 baseline due to warmer advection. Late-day observations and model consensus leave little room for deviation below 15°C or above 17°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could still adjust the precise reading before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 5?
16°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$7,182 Vol.
$7,182 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$7,182 Vol.
$7,182 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
14°C or below
$1,458 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,954 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,708 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$681 Vol.
No
18°C
$158 Vol.
No
19°C
$123 Vol.
No
20°C
$20 Vol.
No
21°C
$20 Vol.
No
22°C
$20 Vol.
No
23°C
$20 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$20 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus that the lowest temperature in Paris on September 5 will reach exactly 16°C.** Official forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and local analyses, indicate overnight minimums stabilizing near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds and dew points around 10–11°C. This aligns with the current synoptic pattern of high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions after daytime highs of 24–26°C. Historical averages for the date place the typical low at 12.7°C, so 2026 values sit notably above the 1991–2020 baseline due to warmer advection. Late-day observations and model consensus leave little room for deviation below 15°C or above 17°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could still adjust the precise reading before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$7,182End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus that the lowest temperature in Paris on September 5 will reach exactly 16°C.** Official forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and local analyses, indicate overnight minimums stabilizing near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds and dew points around 10–11°C. This aligns with the current synoptic pattern of high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions after daytime highs of 24–26°C. Historical averages for the date place the typical low at 12.7°C, so 2026 values sit notably above the 1991–2020 baseline due to warmer advection. Late-day observations and model consensus leave little room for deviation below 15°C or above 17°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could still adjust the precise reading before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,182End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus that the lowest temperature in Paris on September 5 will reach exactly 16°C.** Official forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and local analyses, indicate overnight minimums stabilizing near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds and dew points around 10–11°C. This aligns with the current synoptic pattern of high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions after daytime highs of 24–26°C. Historical averages for the date place the typical low at 12.7°C, so 2026 values sit notably above the 1991–2020 baseline due to warmer advection. Late-day observations and model consensus leave little room for deviation below 15°C or above 17°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could still adjust the precise reading before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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