Current forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles point to overnight lows in Moscow on September 6 primarily in the 8–12 °C range, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate westerly flow that limits radiational cooling. These conditions, consistent with recent model runs showing a passing disturbance, underpin the market’s concentration of implied probability around the 7–14 °C outcomes while capping the chance of extremes below 6 °C. Historical September minima average near 10 °C, providing context for the modest downside risk priced at 7 %. Traders will monitor the final overnight model updates and any rapid clearing that could allow temperatures to approach or briefly exceed 14 °C before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
16°C or higher 95%
7°C 50%
8°C 50%
12°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
14%
7°C
50%
8°C
50%
9°C
27%
10°C
27%
11°C
30%
12°C
50%
13°C
50%
14°C
50%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
95%
16°C or higher 95%
7°C 50%
8°C 50%
12°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
14%
7°C
$0 Vol.
50%
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
50%
13°C
$0 Vol.
50%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$133 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles point to overnight lows in Moscow on September 6 primarily in the 8–12 °C range, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate westerly flow that limits radiational cooling. These conditions, consistent with recent model runs showing a passing disturbance, underpin the market’s concentration of implied probability around the 7–14 °C outcomes while capping the chance of extremes below 6 °C. Historical September minima average near 10 °C, providing context for the modest downside risk priced at 7 %. Traders will monitor the final overnight model updates and any rapid clearing that could allow temperatures to approach or briefly exceed 14 °C before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$133End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles point to overnight lows in Moscow on September 6 primarily in the 8–12 °C range, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate westerly flow that limits radiational cooling. These conditions, consistent with recent model runs showing a passing disturbance, underpin the market’s concentration of implied probability around the 7–14 °C outcomes while capping the chance of extremes below 6 °C. Historical September minima average near 10 °C, providing context for the modest downside risk priced at 7 %. Traders will monitor the final overnight model updates and any rapid clearing that could allow temperatures to approach or briefly exceed 14 °C before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$133End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles point to overnight lows in Moscow on September 6 primarily in the 8–12 °C range, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate westerly flow that limits radiational cooling. These conditions, consistent with recent model runs showing a passing disturbance, underpin the market’s concentration of implied probability around the 7–14 °C outcomes while capping the chance of extremes below 6 °C. Historical September minima average near 10 °C, providing context for the modest downside risk priced at 7 %. Traders will monitor the final overnight model updates and any rapid clearing that could allow temperatures to approach or briefly exceed 14 °C before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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