Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Milan’s minimum temperature on September 6 will likely settle near 22°C under persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit daytime heating but allow only modest nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18–21°C outcomes because model spreads reflect typical uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat-island effects, with some members dipping into the upper teens while others hold above 22°C. Historical September climatology for the Po Valley supports overnight lows near 18–20°C, yet the current warm advection pattern has shifted probabilities toward the higher end of that range. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological service guidance expected overnight will provide the final observational constraints before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 6?
18°C or below 68%
28°C or higher 59%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
18°C or below
68%
19°C
30%
20°C
35%
21°C
30%
22°C
50%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
59%
18°C or below 68%
28°C or higher 59%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
68%
19°C
$2 Vol.
30%
20°C
$6 Vol.
35%
21°C
$3 Vol.
30%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Milan’s minimum temperature on September 6 will likely settle near 22°C under persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit daytime heating but allow only modest nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18–21°C outcomes because model spreads reflect typical uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat-island effects, with some members dipping into the upper teens while others hold above 22°C. Historical September climatology for the Po Valley supports overnight lows near 18–20°C, yet the current warm advection pattern has shifted probabilities toward the higher end of that range. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological service guidance expected overnight will provide the final observational constraints before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Milan’s minimum temperature on September 6 will likely settle near 22°C under persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit daytime heating but allow only modest nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18–21°C outcomes because model spreads reflect typical uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat-island effects, with some members dipping into the upper teens while others hold above 22°C. Historical September climatology for the Po Valley supports overnight lows near 18–20°C, yet the current warm advection pattern has shifted probabilities toward the higher end of that range. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological service guidance expected overnight will provide the final observational constraints before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Milan’s minimum temperature on September 6 will likely settle near 22°C under persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit daytime heating but allow only modest nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18–21°C outcomes because model spreads reflect typical uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat-island effects, with some members dipping into the upper teens while others hold above 22°C. Historical September climatology for the Po Valley supports overnight lows near 18–20°C, yet the current warm advection pattern has shifted probabilities toward the higher end of that range. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological service guidance expected overnight will provide the final observational constraints before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions