Trader consensus on the 14–15°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 6 reflects the latest Met Office and GFS guidance showing mild overnight conditions under a southerly flow and variable cloud, with forecast lows clustered near 14–15°C (roughly 57–59°F). Model outputs indicate limited radiational cooling due to persistent cloud and light winds, keeping temperatures above the 12.3°C climatological average while ruling out sharper drops. Minor differences between ensemble members—particularly in timing of any clearing—create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, with only small probabilities attached to 16°C or lower values. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 6?
Lowest temperature in London on September 6?
15°C 53%
14°C 35%
16°C 11%
17°C 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
35%
15°C
53%
16°C
11%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 53%
14°C 35%
16°C 11%
17°C 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$50 Vol.
1%
11°C
$50 Vol.
1%
12°C
$165 Vol.
1%
13°C
$190 Vol.
2%
14°C
$1,812 Vol.
35%
15°C
$955 Vol.
53%
16°C
$792 Vol.
11%
17°C
$77 Vol.
3%
18°C
$60 Vol.
1%
19°C
$60 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$70 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 14–15°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 6 reflects the latest Met Office and GFS guidance showing mild overnight conditions under a southerly flow and variable cloud, with forecast lows clustered near 14–15°C (roughly 57–59°F). Model outputs indicate limited radiational cooling due to persistent cloud and light winds, keeping temperatures above the 12.3°C climatological average while ruling out sharper drops. Minor differences between ensemble members—particularly in timing of any clearing—create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, with only small probabilities attached to 16°C or lower values. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,280End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 14–15°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 6 reflects the latest Met Office and GFS guidance showing mild overnight conditions under a southerly flow and variable cloud, with forecast lows clustered near 14–15°C (roughly 57–59°F). Model outputs indicate limited radiational cooling due to persistent cloud and light winds, keeping temperatures above the 12.3°C climatological average while ruling out sharper drops. Minor differences between ensemble members—particularly in timing of any clearing—create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, with only small probabilities attached to 16°C or lower values. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,280End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 14–15°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 6 reflects the latest Met Office and GFS guidance showing mild overnight conditions under a southerly flow and variable cloud, with forecast lows clustered near 14–15°C (roughly 57–59°F). Model outputs indicate limited radiational cooling due to persistent cloud and light winds, keeping temperatures above the 12.3°C climatological average while ruling out sharper drops. Minor differences between ensemble members—particularly in timing of any clearing—create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, with only small probabilities attached to 16°C or lower values. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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