A strong influx of Antarctic air via southerly flow is driving overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, pushing the minimum temperature in Buenos Aires toward 2–3°C according to Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple numerical models. This polar air mass, combined with brisk winds enhancing sensible heat loss, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 0–2°C rather than higher values typical for early September. Subtle differences in forecast dew points, cloud timing, and urban heat island effects create the narrow spreads between 1°C, 0°C, and –1°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly low recorded at official stations. Updated model runs and SMN briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 6?
8°C or higher 52%
1°C 36%
0°C 30%
-1°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
-2°C or below
12%
-1°C
29%
0°C
30%
1°C
36%
2°C
27%
3°C
24%
4°C
22%
5°C
5%
6°C
8%
7°C
3%
8°C or higher
52%
8°C or higher 52%
1°C 36%
0°C 30%
-1°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
-2°C or below
$15 Vol.
12%
-1°C
$0 Vol.
29%
0°C
$0 Vol.
30%
1°C
$0 Vol.
36%
2°C
$0 Vol.
27%
3°C
$0 Vol.
24%
4°C
$0 Vol.
22%
5°C
$37 Vol.
5%
6°C
$0 Vol.
8%
7°C
$0 Vol.
3%
8°C or higher
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong influx of Antarctic air via southerly flow is driving overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, pushing the minimum temperature in Buenos Aires toward 2–3°C according to Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple numerical models. This polar air mass, combined with brisk winds enhancing sensible heat loss, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 0–2°C rather than higher values typical for early September. Subtle differences in forecast dew points, cloud timing, and urban heat island effects create the narrow spreads between 1°C, 0°C, and –1°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly low recorded at official stations. Updated model runs and SMN briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$52End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong influx of Antarctic air via southerly flow is driving overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, pushing the minimum temperature in Buenos Aires toward 2–3°C according to Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple numerical models. This polar air mass, combined with brisk winds enhancing sensible heat loss, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 0–2°C rather than higher values typical for early September. Subtle differences in forecast dew points, cloud timing, and urban heat island effects create the narrow spreads between 1°C, 0°C, and –1°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly low recorded at official stations. Updated model runs and SMN briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$52End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong influx of Antarctic air via southerly flow is driving overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, pushing the minimum temperature in Buenos Aires toward 2–3°C according to Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple numerical models. This polar air mass, combined with brisk winds enhancing sensible heat loss, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 0–2°C rather than higher values typical for early September. Subtle differences in forecast dew points, cloud timing, and urban heat island effects create the narrow spreads between 1°C, 0°C, and –1°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly low recorded at official stations. Updated model runs and SMN briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions