Current meteorological forecasts from regional models indicate a minimum temperature of 20°C in Beijing on September 6, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow maintaining mild overnight lows near historical September averages of 18°C. Official observations and ensemble guidance show limited diurnal cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points supporting this threshold, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for 20°C. This consensus reflects real-time data assimilation rather than long-term trends. Uncertainties remain from potential model revisions in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects that could nudge readings slightly lower, though significant deviations below 19°C appear unlikely without abrupt frontal passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 6?
20°C 99.5%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$6,999 Vol.
$6,999 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 99.5%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$6,999 Vol.
$6,999 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
$50 Vol.
No
15°C
$60 Vol.
No
16°C
$40 Vol.
No
17°C
$164 Vol.
No
18°C
$467 Vol.
No
19°C
$167 Vol.
No
20°C
$869 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$2,326 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,766 Vol.
No
23°C
$55 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$35 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from regional models indicate a minimum temperature of 20°C in Beijing on September 6, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow maintaining mild overnight lows near historical September averages of 18°C. Official observations and ensemble guidance show limited diurnal cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points supporting this threshold, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for 20°C. This consensus reflects real-time data assimilation rather than long-term trends. Uncertainties remain from potential model revisions in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects that could nudge readings slightly lower, though significant deviations below 19°C appear unlikely without abrupt frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,999End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from regional models indicate a minimum temperature of 20°C in Beijing on September 6, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow maintaining mild overnight lows near historical September averages of 18°C. Official observations and ensemble guidance show limited diurnal cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points supporting this threshold, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for 20°C. This consensus reflects real-time data assimilation rather than long-term trends. Uncertainties remain from potential model revisions in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects that could nudge readings slightly lower, though significant deviations below 19°C appear unlikely without abrupt frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,999End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current meteorological forecasts from regional models indicate a minimum temperature of 20°C in Beijing on September 6, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow maintaining mild overnight lows near historical September averages of 18°C. Official observations and ensemble guidance show limited diurnal cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points supporting this threshold, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for 20°C. This consensus reflects real-time data assimilation rather than long-term trends. Uncertainties remain from potential model revisions in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects that could nudge readings slightly lower, though significant deviations below 19°C appear unlikely without abrupt frontal passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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