Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show high uncertainty in Beijing's minimum temperature for September 7, with consensus clustering around 17–20°C due to variable high-pressure influence and potential weak frontal passages overnight. Recent surface observations indicate mild conditions with dew points supporting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, while historical September climatology places typical lows near 16–18°C. Traders appear to weigh slight differences in model bias for boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping probabilities tightly bunched as new 00Z and 12Z runs approach. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the Beijing observatory, with any shift in cloud cover or wind speed likely to tip the final minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 7?
21°C 50%
22°C 50%
18°C 30%
19°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
15°C or below
18%
16°C
25%
17°C
27%
18°C
30%
19°C
30%
20°C
30%
21°C
50%
22°C
50%
23°C
8%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 50%
22°C 50%
18°C 30%
19°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
15°C or below
$10 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
30%
19°C
$0 Vol.
30%
20°C
$32 Vol.
30%
21°C
$0 Vol.
50%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
8%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$133 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show high uncertainty in Beijing's minimum temperature for September 7, with consensus clustering around 17–20°C due to variable high-pressure influence and potential weak frontal passages overnight. Recent surface observations indicate mild conditions with dew points supporting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, while historical September climatology places typical lows near 16–18°C. Traders appear to weigh slight differences in model bias for boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping probabilities tightly bunched as new 00Z and 12Z runs approach. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the Beijing observatory, with any shift in cloud cover or wind speed likely to tip the final minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$175End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show high uncertainty in Beijing's minimum temperature for September 7, with consensus clustering around 17–20°C due to variable high-pressure influence and potential weak frontal passages overnight. Recent surface observations indicate mild conditions with dew points supporting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, while historical September climatology places typical lows near 16–18°C. Traders appear to weigh slight differences in model bias for boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping probabilities tightly bunched as new 00Z and 12Z runs approach. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the Beijing observatory, with any shift in cloud cover or wind speed likely to tip the final minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$175End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show high uncertainty in Beijing's minimum temperature for September 7, with consensus clustering around 17–20°C due to variable high-pressure influence and potential weak frontal passages overnight. Recent surface observations indicate mild conditions with dew points supporting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, while historical September climatology places typical lows near 16–18°C. Traders appear to weigh slight differences in model bias for boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping probabilities tightly bunched as new 00Z and 12Z runs approach. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the Beijing observatory, with any shift in cloud cover or wind speed likely to tip the final minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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