Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mid-70s overnight low for Austin on September 6, driven by persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorm chances. This setup favors a minimum near 75–78°F at official stations, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F buckets. Slight model spread in timing of any showers or wind shifts creates uncertainty between the 72–73°F and 76–77°F ranges, while historical September averages near 71°F underscore the current above-normal warmth. Traders weigh these factors against potential for marginally cooler pockets if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 6?
80-81°F 44%
82-83°F 44%
86°F or higher 44%
67°F or below 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
67°F or below
43%
68-69°F
8%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
40%
76-77°F
34%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
44%
82-83°F
44%
84-85°F
19%
86°F or higher
44%
80-81°F 44%
82-83°F 44%
86°F or higher 44%
67°F or below 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
43%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
8%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$2 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
40%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
34%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
23%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
44%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
44%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
19%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mid-70s overnight low for Austin on September 6, driven by persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorm chances. This setup favors a minimum near 75–78°F at official stations, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F buckets. Slight model spread in timing of any showers or wind shifts creates uncertainty between the 72–73°F and 76–77°F ranges, while historical September averages near 71°F underscore the current above-normal warmth. Traders weigh these factors against potential for marginally cooler pockets if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mid-70s overnight low for Austin on September 6, driven by persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorm chances. This setup favors a minimum near 75–78°F at official stations, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F buckets. Slight model spread in timing of any showers or wind shifts creates uncertainty between the 72–73°F and 76–77°F ranges, while historical September averages near 71°F underscore the current above-normal warmth. Traders weigh these factors against potential for marginally cooler pockets if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mid-70s overnight low for Austin on September 6, driven by persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorm chances. This setup favors a minimum near 75–78°F at official stations, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F buckets. Slight model spread in timing of any showers or wind shifts creates uncertainty between the 72–73°F and 76–77°F ranges, while historical September averages near 71°F underscore the current above-normal warmth. Traders weigh these factors against potential for marginally cooler pockets if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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