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Politics·Peru

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

icon for Lima Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Peru

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

Rafael López Aliaga 70.0%

Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 24%

Francis James Allison Oyague 6%

Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.2%

Polymarket

$120,734 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga 70.0%

Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 24%

Francis James Allison Oyague 6%

Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.2%

Polymarket

$120,734 Vol.

icon for Rafael López Aliaga

Rafael López Aliaga

$5,060 Vol.

70%

icon for Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca

Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca

$36,146 Vol.

24%

icon for Francis James Allison Oyague

Francis James Allison Oyague

$17,192 Vol.

6%

icon for Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli

Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli

$4,256 Vol.

1%

icon for Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo

Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo

$9,541 Vol.

1%

icon for Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera

Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera

$8,206 Vol.

1%

icon for Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué

Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué

$3,101 Vol.

1%

icon for Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar

Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar

$2,479 Vol.

1%

icon for Samuel Marcos Daza Taype

Samuel Marcos Daza Taype

$3,425 Vol.

1%

icon for Rubén José Ramírez Mateo

Rubén José Ramírez Mateo

$2,323 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega

Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega

$3,124 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra

Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra

$1,721 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jessica Viviana Linares Romero

Jessica Viviana Linares Romero

$1,823 Vol.

<1%

icon for Yehude Simón Munaro

Yehude Simón Munaro

$4,591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Santiago Rosendo Abarca León

Santiago Rosendo Abarca León

$1,829 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino

Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino

$1,727 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sandro Caller Gutiérrez

Sandro Caller Gutiérrez

$2,118 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay

Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay

$2,446 Vol.

<1%

icon for Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés

Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés

$1,684 Vol.

<1%

icon for Flor de María Hurtado Valdez

Flor de María Hurtado Valdez

$1,898 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza

Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza

$2,201 Vol.

<1%

icon for Segundo Valdez Zavala

Segundo Valdez Zavala

$1,769 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samir Frank Quispe Caballero

Samir Frank Quispe Caballero

$2,073 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 68.3% implied probability ahead of the October 4, 2026, election because recent polling averages place his Renovación Popular list in the low-to-mid 30s, well ahead of Carlos Bruce and a fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates. The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones confirmed his registration as first regidor on September 5 after rejecting an appeal alleging an indirect reelection attempt, clearing the final procedural hurdle following Luis Rubio’s withdrawal from the mayoral slot. This structural advantage, combined with López Aliaga’s prior term as mayor and consolidated right-leaning support, has produced the current trader consensus. Lower probabilities for Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others reflect the dispersed opposition vote and limited time for consolidation before election day.

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Volume
$120,734
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 68.3% implied probability ahead of the October 4, 2026, election because recent polling averages place his Renovación Popular list in the low-to-mid 30s, well ahead of Carlos Bruce and a fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates. The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones confirmed his registration as first regidor on September 5 after rejecting an appeal alleging an indirect reelection attempt, clearing the final procedural hurdle following Luis Rubio’s withdrawal from the mayoral slot. This structural advantage, combined with López Aliaga’s prior term as mayor and consolidated right-leaning support, has produced the current trader consensus. Lower probabilities for Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others reflect the dispersed opposition vote and limited time for consolidation before election day.

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Volume
$120,734
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lima Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 70%, followed by "Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lima Mayoral Election Winner" has generated $120.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lima Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lima Mayoral Election Winner" is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lima Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.