Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 have severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its 400-plus kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and rendering cascades inoperable. IAEA reports as of early September 2026 confirm no verified enrichment activity or inspector access to these sites, while an interim U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding seeks to preserve the status quo pending further talks. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a test before 2027 because reconstitution would require detectable reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, risking renewed strikes. Unresolved access disputes or undetected material diversion remain the primary variables that could shift timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$251,652 Vol.
$251,652 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$251,652 Vol.
$251,652 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 have severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its 400-plus kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and rendering cascades inoperable. IAEA reports as of early September 2026 confirm no verified enrichment activity or inspector access to these sites, while an interim U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding seeks to preserve the status quo pending further talks. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a test before 2027 because reconstitution would require detectable reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, risking renewed strikes. Unresolved access disputes or undetected material diversion remain the primary variables that could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,652End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 have severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its 400-plus kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and rendering cascades inoperable. IAEA reports as of early September 2026 confirm no verified enrichment activity or inspector access to these sites, while an interim U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding seeks to preserve the status quo pending further talks. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a test before 2027 because reconstitution would require detectable reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, risking renewed strikes. Unresolved access disputes or undetected material diversion remain the primary variables that could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,652End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 have severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its 400-plus kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and rendering cascades inoperable. IAEA reports as of early September 2026 confirm no verified enrichment activity or inspector access to these sites, while an interim U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding seeks to preserve the status quo pending further talks. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a test before 2027 because reconstitution would require detectable reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, risking renewed strikes. Unresolved access disputes or undetected material diversion remain the primary variables that could shift timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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