President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any tests would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems checks at the Nevada National Security Site, not full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. The National Nuclear Security Administration has reaffirmed the stockpile stewardship program's success in certifying warhead reliability without explosive testing, while internal planning references potential directive execution only by late 2028. No U.S. explosive test has occurred since 1992, and international monitoring shows no preparations for one amid ongoing diplomatic and technical barriers. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and the absence of near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$795,253 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
5%
$795,253 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$76,887 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any tests would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems checks at the Nevada National Security Site, not full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. The National Nuclear Security Administration has reaffirmed the stockpile stewardship program's success in certifying warhead reliability without explosive testing, while internal planning references potential directive execution only by late 2028. No U.S. explosive test has occurred since 1992, and international monitoring shows no preparations for one amid ongoing diplomatic and technical barriers. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and the absence of near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,253End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any tests would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems checks at the Nevada National Security Site, not full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. The National Nuclear Security Administration has reaffirmed the stockpile stewardship program's success in certifying warhead reliability without explosive testing, while internal planning references potential directive execution only by late 2028. No U.S. explosive test has occurred since 1992, and international monitoring shows no preparations for one amid ongoing diplomatic and technical barriers. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and the absence of near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,253End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any tests would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems checks at the Nevada National Security Site, not full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. The National Nuclear Security Administration has reaffirmed the stockpile stewardship program's success in certifying warhead reliability without explosive testing, while internal planning references potential directive execution only by late 2028. No U.S. explosive test has occurred since 1992, and international monitoring shows no preparations for one amid ongoing diplomatic and technical barriers. Trader consensus reflects these constraints and the absence of near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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