US envoys arrived in Moscow on September 5, 2026, to revive trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine, prompting a brief mutual pause in long-range strikes, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, Ukrainian NATO membership, and postwar security guarantees remain unresolved. Russia continues to demand cession of additional eastern regions and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions Kyiv rejects outright. Battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, and elevated casualties through August, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner swaps without political progress. With roughly four months until 2027, these entrenched positions and the short remaining window sustain trader consensus against a signed deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$2,690,293 Vol.
$2,690,293 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
14% chance
$2,690,293 Vol.
$2,690,293 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US envoys arrived in Moscow on September 5, 2026, to revive trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine, prompting a brief mutual pause in long-range strikes, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, Ukrainian NATO membership, and postwar security guarantees remain unresolved. Russia continues to demand cession of additional eastern regions and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions Kyiv rejects outright. Battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, and elevated casualties through August, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner swaps without political progress. With roughly four months until 2027, these entrenched positions and the short remaining window sustain trader consensus against a signed deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,690,293End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US envoys arrived in Moscow on September 5, 2026, to revive trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine, prompting a brief mutual pause in long-range strikes, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, Ukrainian NATO membership, and postwar security guarantees remain unresolved. Russia continues to demand cession of additional eastern regions and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions Kyiv rejects outright. Battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, and elevated casualties through August, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner swaps without political progress. With roughly four months until 2027, these entrenched positions and the short remaining window sustain trader consensus against a signed deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,690,293End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US envoys arrived in Moscow on September 5, 2026, to revive trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine, prompting a brief mutual pause in long-range strikes, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, Ukrainian NATO membership, and postwar security guarantees remain unresolved. Russia continues to demand cession of additional eastern regions and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions Kyiv rejects outright. Battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, and elevated casualties through August, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner swaps without political progress. With roughly four months until 2027, these entrenched positions and the short remaining window sustain trader consensus against a signed deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions