US-mediated talks resumed in early September 2026 with envoys visiting Moscow and planned meetings in Kyiv, accompanied by a short pause in strikes on the capital, yet core disputes persist over Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, permanent NATO exclusion, and limits on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine has rejected unilateral territorial concessions, and prior trilateral rounds in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing on these fundamentals. Ukrainian officials have described upcoming sessions as largely technical, with no swift comprehensive agreement anticipated amid ongoing frontline fighting and airstrikes. The short timeline to October 31 leaves little room for bridging these gaps, sustaining trader consensus on the low likelihood of a signed deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated talks resumed in early September 2026 with envoys visiting Moscow and planned meetings in Kyiv, accompanied by a short pause in strikes on the capital, yet core disputes persist over Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, permanent NATO exclusion, and limits on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine has rejected unilateral territorial concessions, and prior trilateral rounds in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing on these fundamentals. Ukrainian officials have described upcoming sessions as largely technical, with no swift comprehensive agreement anticipated amid ongoing frontline fighting and airstrikes. The short timeline to October 31 leaves little room for bridging these gaps, sustaining trader consensus on the low likelihood of a signed deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$8,706End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated talks resumed in early September 2026 with envoys visiting Moscow and planned meetings in Kyiv, accompanied by a short pause in strikes on the capital, yet core disputes persist over Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, permanent NATO exclusion, and limits on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine has rejected unilateral territorial concessions, and prior trilateral rounds in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing on these fundamentals. Ukrainian officials have described upcoming sessions as largely technical, with no swift comprehensive agreement anticipated amid ongoing frontline fighting and airstrikes. The short timeline to October 31 leaves little room for bridging these gaps, sustaining trader consensus on the low likelihood of a signed deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,706End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated talks resumed in early September 2026 with envoys visiting Moscow and planned meetings in Kyiv, accompanied by a short pause in strikes on the capital, yet core disputes persist over Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, permanent NATO exclusion, and limits on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine has rejected unilateral territorial concessions, and prior trilateral rounds in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing on these fundamentals. Ukrainian officials have described upcoming sessions as largely technical, with no swift comprehensive agreement anticipated amid ongoing frontline fighting and airstrikes. The short timeline to October 31 leaves little room for bridging these gaps, sustaining trader consensus on the low likelihood of a signed deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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