Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote, defeating two challengers, while Democrat Elinor Gilbreath advanced unopposed in substance on her side. All major forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+13 Partisan Voter Index, rural and eastern Idaho base, and Simpson's repeated general-election margins above 60% in prior cycles. Limited Democratic fundraising and infrastructure, combined with the absence of competitive polling or national spending, underpin the 95% Republican trader consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late scandal, health event affecting Simpson, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge, though the district's structural makeup makes such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
$34,369 Vol.
$34,369 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$34,369 Vol.
$34,369 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,241 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$20,128 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote, defeating two challengers, while Democrat Elinor Gilbreath advanced unopposed in substance on her side. All major forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+13 Partisan Voter Index, rural and eastern Idaho base, and Simpson's repeated general-election margins above 60% in prior cycles. Limited Democratic fundraising and infrastructure, combined with the absence of competitive polling or national spending, underpin the 95% Republican trader consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late scandal, health event affecting Simpson, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge, though the district's structural makeup makes such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$34,369End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote, defeating two challengers, while Democrat Elinor Gilbreath advanced unopposed in substance on her side. All major forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+13 Partisan Voter Index, rural and eastern Idaho base, and Simpson's repeated general-election margins above 60% in prior cycles. Limited Democratic fundraising and infrastructure, combined with the absence of competitive polling or national spending, underpin the 95% Republican trader consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late scandal, health event affecting Simpson, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge, though the district's structural makeup makes such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,369End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote, defeating two challengers, while Democrat Elinor Gilbreath advanced unopposed in substance on her side. All major forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+13 Partisan Voter Index, rural and eastern Idaho base, and Simpson's repeated general-election margins above 60% in prior cycles. Limited Democratic fundraising and infrastructure, combined with the absence of competitive polling or national spending, underpin the 95% Republican trader consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late scandal, health event affecting Simpson, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge, though the district's structural makeup makes such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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