**Latest forecast consensus from models including GFS and local meteorological services points to a daily maximum near 19°C in Warsaw on September 6, supporting the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Westerly to northwesterly flow under building high pressure is expected to limit daytime warming, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, light showers possible, and highs likely ranging 17–20°C depending on exact cloud cover and timing of any precipitation. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 18–19°C, consistent with early September climatology for the region, while minor model spread and potential for clearer breaks explain the secondary probabilities on 18°C and 20°C. Updated runs over the next 12–24 hours ahead of the day's peak will be key for refining resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
19°C 49%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
27%
19°C
49%
20°C
19%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 49%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
$139 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$512 Vol.
1%
16°C
$159 Vol.
2%
17°C
$403 Vol.
5%
18°C
$1,881 Vol.
27%
19°C
$1,159 Vol.
49%
20°C
$1,104 Vol.
19%
21°C
$230 Vol.
3%
22°C
$85 Vol.
1%
23°C
$203 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$792 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast consensus from models including GFS and local meteorological services points to a daily maximum near 19°C in Warsaw on September 6, supporting the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Westerly to northwesterly flow under building high pressure is expected to limit daytime warming, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, light showers possible, and highs likely ranging 17–20°C depending on exact cloud cover and timing of any precipitation. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 18–19°C, consistent with early September climatology for the region, while minor model spread and potential for clearer breaks explain the secondary probabilities on 18°C and 20°C. Updated runs over the next 12–24 hours ahead of the day's peak will be key for refining resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$6,666End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast consensus from models including GFS and local meteorological services points to a daily maximum near 19°C in Warsaw on September 6, supporting the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Westerly to northwesterly flow under building high pressure is expected to limit daytime warming, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, light showers possible, and highs likely ranging 17–20°C depending on exact cloud cover and timing of any precipitation. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 18–19°C, consistent with early September climatology for the region, while minor model spread and potential for clearer breaks explain the secondary probabilities on 18°C and 20°C. Updated runs over the next 12–24 hours ahead of the day's peak will be key for refining resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,666End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest forecast consensus from models including GFS and local meteorological services points to a daily maximum near 19°C in Warsaw on September 6, supporting the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Westerly to northwesterly flow under building high pressure is expected to limit daytime warming, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, light showers possible, and highs likely ranging 17–20°C depending on exact cloud cover and timing of any precipitation. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 18–19°C, consistent with early September climatology for the region, while minor model spread and potential for clearer breaks explain the secondary probabilities on 18°C and 20°C. Updated runs over the next 12–24 hours ahead of the day's peak will be key for refining resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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