**Cooler westerly flow and persistent cloud cover are positioning 18–19°C as the most probable peak temperatures for Warsaw on September 6.** Recent model runs from GFS and regional forecasts show a high-pressure build to around 1020 hPa, with northwest winds of 6–8 m/s advecting cooler maritime air after Friday–Saturday highs near 21–22°C. Light showers and 60–80% cloud cover through midday will limit solar heating, while afternoon partial clearing may allow brief warming to 18–19°C before evening cooling. Official guidance and ensemble data place the daily maximum in this narrow range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. This scientific consensus—rooted in current observations and short-range model agreement—underpins the market’s strong weighting toward 19°C (48.5%) and 18°C (24.0%), reflecting traders’ assessment of limited warming potential ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
19°C 49%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
27%
19°C
49%
20°C
19%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 49%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
$139 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$512 Vol.
1%
16°C
$159 Vol.
2%
17°C
$403 Vol.
5%
18°C
$1,881 Vol.
27%
19°C
$1,159 Vol.
49%
20°C
$1,104 Vol.
19%
21°C
$230 Vol.
3%
22°C
$85 Vol.
1%
23°C
$203 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$792 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler westerly flow and persistent cloud cover are positioning 18–19°C as the most probable peak temperatures for Warsaw on September 6.** Recent model runs from GFS and regional forecasts show a high-pressure build to around 1020 hPa, with northwest winds of 6–8 m/s advecting cooler maritime air after Friday–Saturday highs near 21–22°C. Light showers and 60–80% cloud cover through midday will limit solar heating, while afternoon partial clearing may allow brief warming to 18–19°C before evening cooling. Official guidance and ensemble data place the daily maximum in this narrow range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. This scientific consensus—rooted in current observations and short-range model agreement—underpins the market’s strong weighting toward 19°C (48.5%) and 18°C (24.0%), reflecting traders’ assessment of limited warming potential ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$6,666End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler westerly flow and persistent cloud cover are positioning 18–19°C as the most probable peak temperatures for Warsaw on September 6.** Recent model runs from GFS and regional forecasts show a high-pressure build to around 1020 hPa, with northwest winds of 6–8 m/s advecting cooler maritime air after Friday–Saturday highs near 21–22°C. Light showers and 60–80% cloud cover through midday will limit solar heating, while afternoon partial clearing may allow brief warming to 18–19°C before evening cooling. Official guidance and ensemble data place the daily maximum in this narrow range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. This scientific consensus—rooted in current observations and short-range model agreement—underpins the market’s strong weighting toward 19°C (48.5%) and 18°C (24.0%), reflecting traders’ assessment of limited warming potential ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,666End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cooler westerly flow and persistent cloud cover are positioning 18–19°C as the most probable peak temperatures for Warsaw on September 6.** Recent model runs from GFS and regional forecasts show a high-pressure build to around 1020 hPa, with northwest winds of 6–8 m/s advecting cooler maritime air after Friday–Saturday highs near 21–22°C. Light showers and 60–80% cloud cover through midday will limit solar heating, while afternoon partial clearing may allow brief warming to 18–19°C before evening cooling. Official guidance and ensemble data place the daily maximum in this narrow range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. This scientific consensus—rooted in current observations and short-range model agreement—underpins the market’s strong weighting toward 19°C (48.5%) and 18°C (24.0%), reflecting traders’ assessment of limited warming potential ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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