Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including GFS runs, indicate a cool, cloudy pattern with widespread rain and westerly winds limiting daytime heating, positioning Moscow’s September 6 maximum near 15 °C as the most probable outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 50.5 % implied probability for 15 °C and secondary support for 14 °C and 16 °C. The setup reflects below-normal temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.3 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover and precipitation that reduce solar insolation. Short-range model consensus remains tight, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of showers could adjust the final observed peak by 1–2 °C before official Roshydromet verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
15°C 51%
14°C 26%
16°C 18%
13°C 6%
NEW
$13,049 Vol.
NEW
$13,049 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
6%
14°C
26%
15°C
51%
16°C
18%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 51%
14°C 26%
16°C 18%
13°C 6%
NEW
$13,049 Vol.
NEW
$13,049 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$634 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,443 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$3,236 Vol.
6%
14°C
$2,180 Vol.
26%
15°C
$1,116 Vol.
51%
16°C
$1,363 Vol.
18%
17°C
$567 Vol.
3%
18°C
$710 Vol.
1%
19°C
$328 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$297 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including GFS runs, indicate a cool, cloudy pattern with widespread rain and westerly winds limiting daytime heating, positioning Moscow’s September 6 maximum near 15 °C as the most probable outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 50.5 % implied probability for 15 °C and secondary support for 14 °C and 16 °C. The setup reflects below-normal temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.3 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover and precipitation that reduce solar insolation. Short-range model consensus remains tight, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of showers could adjust the final observed peak by 1–2 °C before official Roshydromet verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$13,049End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including GFS runs, indicate a cool, cloudy pattern with widespread rain and westerly winds limiting daytime heating, positioning Moscow’s September 6 maximum near 15 °C as the most probable outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 50.5 % implied probability for 15 °C and secondary support for 14 °C and 16 °C. The setup reflects below-normal temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.3 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover and precipitation that reduce solar insolation. Short-range model consensus remains tight, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of showers could adjust the final observed peak by 1–2 °C before official Roshydromet verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,049End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including GFS runs, indicate a cool, cloudy pattern with widespread rain and westerly winds limiting daytime heating, positioning Moscow’s September 6 maximum near 15 °C as the most probable outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 50.5 % implied probability for 15 °C and secondary support for 14 °C and 16 °C. The setup reflects below-normal temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.3 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover and precipitation that reduce solar insolation. Short-range model consensus remains tight, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of showers could adjust the final observed peak by 1–2 °C before official Roshydromet verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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