Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a peak afternoon temperature of 31–33 °C in Milan on September 7, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong solar heating under dry mid-level air. This setup favors modest exceedance of the September climatological mean (around 25–27 °C) while capping extremes through limited moisture and modest boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 31–32 °C because recent model runs cluster near these values, with only modest spread from small differences in cloud timing or local urban heat effects; a 33 °C outcome would require slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind, scenarios the current guidance treats as lower-probability outliers. Updated model cycles tomorrow morning will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 7?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 7?
32°C 43%
31°C 38%
33°C 10%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
38%
32°C
43%
33°C
10%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 43%
31°C 38%
33°C 10%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
28°C or below
$251 Vol.
1%
29°C
$41 Vol.
3%
30°C
$162 Vol.
8%
31°C
$573 Vol.
38%
32°C
$364 Vol.
43%
33°C
$99 Vol.
10%
34°C
$46 Vol.
3%
35°C
$200 Vol.
2%
36°C
$110 Vol.
1%
37°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$270 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a peak afternoon temperature of 31–33 °C in Milan on September 7, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong solar heating under dry mid-level air. This setup favors modest exceedance of the September climatological mean (around 25–27 °C) while capping extremes through limited moisture and modest boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 31–32 °C because recent model runs cluster near these values, with only modest spread from small differences in cloud timing or local urban heat effects; a 33 °C outcome would require slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind, scenarios the current guidance treats as lower-probability outliers. Updated model cycles tomorrow morning will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,150End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a peak afternoon temperature of 31–33 °C in Milan on September 7, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong solar heating under dry mid-level air. This setup favors modest exceedance of the September climatological mean (around 25–27 °C) while capping extremes through limited moisture and modest boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 31–32 °C because recent model runs cluster near these values, with only modest spread from small differences in cloud timing or local urban heat effects; a 33 °C outcome would require slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind, scenarios the current guidance treats as lower-probability outliers. Updated model cycles tomorrow morning will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,150End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a peak afternoon temperature of 31–33 °C in Milan on September 7, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong solar heating under dry mid-level air. This setup favors modest exceedance of the September climatological mean (around 25–27 °C) while capping extremes through limited moisture and modest boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 31–32 °C because recent model runs cluster near these values, with only modest spread from small differences in cloud timing or local urban heat effects; a 33 °C outcome would require slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind, scenarios the current guidance treats as lower-probability outliers. Updated model cycles tomorrow morning will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions