**Observed high temperatures in Ankara on September 5, 2026, aligned precisely with 29°C per station data from sources like the IEM mesonet, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple forecast models from agencies and services had projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal precipitation, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. The tight consensus around 29°C reflected both real-time observations and the absence of significant model spread or late-day warming. A realistic challenge would require an official revision from the primary reporting station or an unusually sharp post-sunset spike, though current conditions and historical September patterns make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on September 5?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 5?
29°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$30,979 Vol.
$30,979 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$30,979 Vol.
$30,979 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
$189 Vol.
No
23°C
$155 Vol.
No
24°C
$129 Vol.
No
25°C
$294 Vol.
No
26°C
$405 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,610 Vol.
No
28°C
$9,042 Vol.
No
29°C
$10,467 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$5,675 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,327 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$686 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Observed high temperatures in Ankara on September 5, 2026, aligned precisely with 29°C per station data from sources like the IEM mesonet, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple forecast models from agencies and services had projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal precipitation, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. The tight consensus around 29°C reflected both real-time observations and the absence of significant model spread or late-day warming. A realistic challenge would require an official revision from the primary reporting station or an unusually sharp post-sunset spike, though current conditions and historical September patterns make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,979End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Observed high temperatures in Ankara on September 5, 2026, aligned precisely with 29°C per station data from sources like the IEM mesonet, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple forecast models from agencies and services had projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal precipitation, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. The tight consensus around 29°C reflected both real-time observations and the absence of significant model spread or late-day warming. A realistic challenge would require an official revision from the primary reporting station or an unusually sharp post-sunset spike, though current conditions and historical September patterns make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,979End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Observed high temperatures in Ankara on September 5, 2026, aligned precisely with 29°C per station data from sources like the IEM mesonet, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple forecast models from agencies and services had projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal precipitation, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. The tight consensus around 29°C reflected both real-time observations and the absence of significant model spread or late-day warming. A realistic challenge would require an official revision from the primary reporting station or an unusually sharp post-sunset spike, though current conditions and historical September patterns make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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