Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district race, backed by the area's consistent D+12 Partisan Voter Index and her strong primary performance. Tokuda secured over 91% of the Democratic primary vote in August 2026 against minimal opposition, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's broader partisan lean, Tokuda's fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure in recent cycles. The November 3 general election outcome remains subject to late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unforeseen national partisan shift, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-02 House Election Winner
HI-02 House Election Winner
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$20,436 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district race, backed by the area's consistent D+12 Partisan Voter Index and her strong primary performance. Tokuda secured over 91% of the Democratic primary vote in August 2026 against minimal opposition, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's broader partisan lean, Tokuda's fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure in recent cycles. The November 3 general election outcome remains subject to late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unforeseen national partisan shift, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$63,531End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district race, backed by the area's consistent D+12 Partisan Voter Index and her strong primary performance. Tokuda secured over 91% of the Democratic primary vote in August 2026 against minimal opposition, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's broader partisan lean, Tokuda's fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure in recent cycles. The November 3 general election outcome remains subject to late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unforeseen national partisan shift, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,531End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district race, backed by the area's consistent D+12 Partisan Voter Index and her strong primary performance. Tokuda secured over 91% of the Democratic primary vote in August 2026 against minimal opposition, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's broader partisan lean, Tokuda's fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure in recent cycles. The November 3 general election outcome remains subject to late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unforeseen national partisan shift, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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