Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Farsi Island has not faced reported seizures, ground incursions, or changes in primary governmental or military authority. Trader consensus assigns low probability to any shift by late 2026 dates, reflecting the island’s limited strategic profile relative to larger export or chokepoint facilities, historical Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions, and the challenges of rapid territorial change through airstrikes alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$197,515 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$197,515 Vol.
September 30
$20,245 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Farsi Island has not faced reported seizures, ground incursions, or changes in primary governmental or military authority. Trader consensus assigns low probability to any shift by late 2026 dates, reflecting the island’s limited strategic profile relative to larger export or chokepoint facilities, historical Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions, and the challenges of rapid territorial change through airstrikes alone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$197,515End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Farsi Island has not faced reported seizures, ground incursions, or changes in primary governmental or military authority. Trader consensus assigns low probability to any shift by late 2026 dates, reflecting the island’s limited strategic profile relative to larger export or chokepoint facilities, historical Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions, and the challenges of rapid territorial change through airstrikes alone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$197,515End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Farsi Island has not faced reported seizures, ground incursions, or changes in primary governmental or military authority. Trader consensus assigns low probability to any shift by late 2026 dates, reflecting the island’s limited strategic profile relative to larger export or chokepoint facilities, historical Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions, and the challenges of rapid territorial change through airstrikes alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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