Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. Tehran has used the island and nearby positions such as Larak Island as bases for IRGC naval operations, mine-laying, drone launches, and enforcement of preferred shipping routes, while pursuing diplomatic recognition of its authority through talks with Oman under the June memorandum of understanding. Recent developments include U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure in late August and early September 2026 in response to renewed mining attempts and attacks on vessels, alongside Iranian retaliation against regional U.S. targets. No ground operations or territorial shifts affecting the island have occurred, and trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to any near-term change in Iranian sovereignty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$70,725 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$70,725 Vol.
September 30
$448 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. Tehran has used the island and nearby positions such as Larak Island as bases for IRGC naval operations, mine-laying, drone launches, and enforcement of preferred shipping routes, while pursuing diplomatic recognition of its authority through talks with Oman under the June memorandum of understanding. Recent developments include U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure in late August and early September 2026 in response to renewed mining attempts and attacks on vessels, alongside Iranian retaliation against regional U.S. targets. No ground operations or territorial shifts affecting the island have occurred, and trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to any near-term change in Iranian sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$70,725End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. Tehran has used the island and nearby positions such as Larak Island as bases for IRGC naval operations, mine-laying, drone launches, and enforcement of preferred shipping routes, while pursuing diplomatic recognition of its authority through talks with Oman under the June memorandum of understanding. Recent developments include U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure in late August and early September 2026 in response to renewed mining attempts and attacks on vessels, alongside Iranian retaliation against regional U.S. targets. No ground operations or territorial shifts affecting the island have occurred, and trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to any near-term change in Iranian sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$70,725End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. Tehran has used the island and nearby positions such as Larak Island as bases for IRGC naval operations, mine-laying, drone launches, and enforcement of preferred shipping routes, while pursuing diplomatic recognition of its authority through talks with Oman under the June memorandum of understanding. Recent developments include U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure in late August and early September 2026 in response to renewed mining attempts and attacks on vessels, alongside Iranian retaliation against regional U.S. targets. No ground operations or territorial shifts affecting the island have occurred, and trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to any near-term change in Iranian sovereignty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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