US and Israeli strikes since February 2026 have targeted military infrastructure on Hengam and nearby Strait of Hormuz islands such as Qeshm and Kharg, aiming to degrade Iranian naval and missile capabilities without altering territorial control. Iran retains primary governmental and military authority over these sites, with reported rebuilding of damaged facilities and expansion of its operational zone in the strait. A June 2026 ceasefire and subsequent negotiations have reduced direct confrontation, though periodic strikes and heightened alert postures continue. No verified ground operations, occupations, or shifts to another state or authority have occurred. Trader-implied probabilities remain low, reflecting the absence of conditions that would trigger resolution to "yes" by late September 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,387 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$208,387 Vol.
September 30
$2,547 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes since February 2026 have targeted military infrastructure on Hengam and nearby Strait of Hormuz islands such as Qeshm and Kharg, aiming to degrade Iranian naval and missile capabilities without altering territorial control. Iran retains primary governmental and military authority over these sites, with reported rebuilding of damaged facilities and expansion of its operational zone in the strait. A June 2026 ceasefire and subsequent negotiations have reduced direct confrontation, though periodic strikes and heightened alert postures continue. No verified ground operations, occupations, or shifts to another state or authority have occurred. Trader-implied probabilities remain low, reflecting the absence of conditions that would trigger resolution to "yes" by late September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$208,387End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes since February 2026 have targeted military infrastructure on Hengam and nearby Strait of Hormuz islands such as Qeshm and Kharg, aiming to degrade Iranian naval and missile capabilities without altering territorial control. Iran retains primary governmental and military authority over these sites, with reported rebuilding of damaged facilities and expansion of its operational zone in the strait. A June 2026 ceasefire and subsequent negotiations have reduced direct confrontation, though periodic strikes and heightened alert postures continue. No verified ground operations, occupations, or shifts to another state or authority have occurred. Trader-implied probabilities remain low, reflecting the absence of conditions that would trigger resolution to "yes" by late September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,387End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes since February 2026 have targeted military infrastructure on Hengam and nearby Strait of Hormuz islands such as Qeshm and Kharg, aiming to degrade Iranian naval and missile capabilities without altering territorial control. Iran retains primary governmental and military authority over these sites, with reported rebuilding of damaged facilities and expansion of its operational zone in the strait. A June 2026 ceasefire and subsequent negotiations have reduced direct confrontation, though periodic strikes and heightened alert postures continue. No verified ground operations, occupations, or shifts to another state or authority have occurred. Trader-implied probabilities remain low, reflecting the absence of conditions that would trigger resolution to "yes" by late September 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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