Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the United Conservative Party’s strong position in this south Calgary suburban riding, which the party has held since its creation. Derry secured the UCP nomination in late June by defeating sitting city councillor Dan McLean in a membership vote, drawing endorsements from party officials and Premier Danielle Smith. The by-election, called after former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz vacated the seat in May, is set for September 14. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and minor-party contenders face structural disadvantages in a riding where UCP support has been consistent in recent provincial votes. Late developments such as unusually low turnout or unexpected campaign shifts could narrow the margin, though no such factors have emerged in the final week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMike Derry 93%
Kyle Campbell 6%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$20,912 Vol.
$20,912 Vol.
Mike Derry
93%
Kyle Campbell
6%
John Roggeveen
1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 93%
Kyle Campbell 6%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$20,912 Vol.
$20,912 Vol.
Mike Derry
93%
Kyle Campbell
6%
John Roggeveen
1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the United Conservative Party’s strong position in this south Calgary suburban riding, which the party has held since its creation. Derry secured the UCP nomination in late June by defeating sitting city councillor Dan McLean in a membership vote, drawing endorsements from party officials and Premier Danielle Smith. The by-election, called after former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz vacated the seat in May, is set for September 14. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and minor-party contenders face structural disadvantages in a riding where UCP support has been consistent in recent provincial votes. Late developments such as unusually low turnout or unexpected campaign shifts could narrow the margin, though no such factors have emerged in the final week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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