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icon for Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner
World·Canada

Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner

icon for Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner
World·Canada

Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner

Kerry-Lynne Findlay 57%

Pam Alexis 43%

Lakhwinder Jhaj 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Kerry-Lynne Findlay 57%

Pam Alexis 43%

Lakhwinder Jhaj 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Kerry-Lynne Findlay

Kerry-Lynne Findlay

$8,948 Vol.

57%

icon for Pam Alexis

Pam Alexis

$108 Vol.

43%

icon for Lakhwinder Jhaj

Lakhwinder Jhaj

$165 Vol.

3%

A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).The Abbotsford-Mission by-election on September 26 pits BC Conservative Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay against NDP candidate Pam Alexis in a rematch of the 2024 contest that the Conservatives won by roughly 10 points. Findlay’s 57% implied probability reflects her party’s recent strength in the riding and the need for the leader to secure a legislative seat ahead of the fall session, while Alexis at 43% draws on her local profile as former agriculture minister and the riding’s competitive history. A late-August internal poll showed Findlay ahead by 15 points among decided voters, though recent Conservative caucus departures have introduced uncertainty. Minor candidates including Green Stephen Fowler and CentreBC’s Lakhwinder Jhaj at 2.5% have limited impact so far. With nominations closed and advance voting approaching, the tight margin hinges on turnout among Fraser Valley conservatives versus NDP mobilization on health care and housing.

A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).
Volume
$9,221
End Date
Sep 26, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://elections.bc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).The Abbotsford-Mission by-election on September 26 pits BC Conservative Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay against NDP candidate Pam Alexis in a rematch of the 2024 contest that the Conservatives won by roughly 10 points. Findlay’s 57% implied probability reflects her party’s recent strength in the riding and the need for the leader to secure a legislative seat ahead of the fall session, while Alexis at 43% draws on her local profile as former agriculture minister and the riding’s competitive history. A late-August internal poll showed Findlay ahead by 15 points among decided voters, though recent Conservative caucus departures have introduced uncertainty. Minor candidates including Green Stephen Fowler and CentreBC’s Lakhwinder Jhaj at 2.5% have limited impact so far. With nominations closed and advance voting approaching, the tight margin hinges on turnout among Fraser Valley conservatives versus NDP mobilization on health care and housing.

A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).
Volume
$9,221
End Date
Sep 26, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://elections.bc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kerry-Lynne Findlay" at 57%, followed by "Pam Alexis" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner" is "Kerry-Lynne Findlay" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pam Alexis" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.