Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 general election matchup against Republican Kevin Lincoln, reflecting the district's post-redistricting Democratic baseline and Gray's primary performance of 42 percent. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee over 90 percent implied probability. Recent mid-decade redistricting incorporated Stockton and shifted the seat toward D+6 territory, building on Gray's narrow 2024 flip of the prior configuration. Lincoln advanced from the June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and structural positioning. Late national shifts, turnout surges among key Central Valley voting blocs, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-13 House Election Winner
CA-13 House Election Winner
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,134 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$6,915 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 general election matchup against Republican Kevin Lincoln, reflecting the district's post-redistricting Democratic baseline and Gray's primary performance of 42 percent. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee over 90 percent implied probability. Recent mid-decade redistricting incorporated Stockton and shifted the seat toward D+6 territory, building on Gray's narrow 2024 flip of the prior configuration. Lincoln advanced from the June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and structural positioning. Late national shifts, turnout surges among key Central Valley voting blocs, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$16,049End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 general election matchup against Republican Kevin Lincoln, reflecting the district's post-redistricting Democratic baseline and Gray's primary performance of 42 percent. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee over 90 percent implied probability. Recent mid-decade redistricting incorporated Stockton and shifted the seat toward D+6 territory, building on Gray's narrow 2024 flip of the prior configuration. Lincoln advanced from the June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and structural positioning. Late national shifts, turnout surges among key Central Valley voting blocs, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,049End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 general election matchup against Republican Kevin Lincoln, reflecting the district's post-redistricting Democratic baseline and Gray's primary performance of 42 percent. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee over 90 percent implied probability. Recent mid-decade redistricting incorporated Stockton and shifted the seat toward D+6 territory, building on Gray's narrow 2024 flip of the prior configuration. Lincoln advanced from the June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and structural positioning. Late national shifts, turnout surges among key Central Valley voting blocs, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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