The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 and a D+9 partisan voter index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote and faces Republican Samuel Gallucci in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the open seat's history and limited Republican infrastructure in Ventura County and surrounding areas. The current pricing reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-26 House Election Winner
CA-26 House Election Winner
$32,175 Vol.
$32,175 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$32,175 Vol.
$32,175 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,426 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$15,749 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 and a D+9 partisan voter index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote and faces Republican Samuel Gallucci in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the open seat's history and limited Republican infrastructure in Ventura County and surrounding areas. The current pricing reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$32,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 and a D+9 partisan voter index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote and faces Republican Samuel Gallucci in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the open seat's history and limited Republican infrastructure in Ventura County and surrounding areas. The current pricing reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 and a D+9 partisan voter index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote and faces Republican Samuel Gallucci in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the open seat's history and limited Republican infrastructure in Ventura County and surrounding areas. The current pricing reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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