Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state-level polls, reflecting the southern state's consistent conservative alignment and strong support for PL candidates. Local surveys from July and August 2026 show him at 45-52% against Lula's 20-25%, with remaining contenders such as Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury in low single digits. This regional preference stems from longstanding voter patterns favoring bolsonarista positions on security, fiscal policy, and institutional issues, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus prices this outcome near certainty while leaving room for late shifts from turnout surges, candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen campaign events that could narrow margins in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.2%
Lula <1%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
1%
Zema
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Samara
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.2%
Lula <1%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,870 Vol.
97%
Lula
$325 Vol.
1%
Zema
$298 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$298 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$289 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$299 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$389 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$289 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$289 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$289 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$289 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$299 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$399 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state-level polls, reflecting the southern state's consistent conservative alignment and strong support for PL candidates. Local surveys from July and August 2026 show him at 45-52% against Lula's 20-25%, with remaining contenders such as Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury in low single digits. This regional preference stems from longstanding voter patterns favoring bolsonarista positions on security, fiscal policy, and institutional issues, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus prices this outcome near certainty while leaving room for late shifts from turnout surges, candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen campaign events that could narrow margins in the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$5,620End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state-level polls, reflecting the southern state's consistent conservative alignment and strong support for PL candidates. Local surveys from July and August 2026 show him at 45-52% against Lula's 20-25%, with remaining contenders such as Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury in low single digits. This regional preference stems from longstanding voter patterns favoring bolsonarista positions on security, fiscal policy, and institutional issues, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus prices this outcome near certainty while leaving room for late shifts from turnout surges, candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen campaign events that could narrow margins in the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,620End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state-level polls, reflecting the southern state's consistent conservative alignment and strong support for PL candidates. Local surveys from July and August 2026 show him at 45-52% against Lula's 20-25%, with remaining contenders such as Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury in low single digits. This regional preference stems from longstanding voter patterns favoring bolsonarista positions on security, fiscal policy, and institutional issues, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus prices this outcome near certainty while leaving room for late shifts from turnout surges, candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen campaign events that could narrow margins in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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