Julieta Ramírez Padilla leads trader pricing at 60.3% as the frontrunner to secure Morena’s nomination and win the June 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages within the dominant party. Multiple June and July 2026 surveys placed her at 39–44% among Morena aspirants, well ahead of Ismael Burgueño Ruiz (17–20%) and others such as Montserrat Caballero Ramírez and Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas. Morena maintains a roughly 20-point lead in statewide voting intention over the PAN, consistent with its control of the governorship and major municipalities. Ramírez, a senator on leave with ties to outgoing Governor Marina del Pilar Ávila, has conducted extensive territorial work and legislative reporting; Burgueño, Tijuana’s mayor on leave, has held large rallies while clearing certain federal inquiries. Internal party surveys and registration processes continue to shape positioning ahead of the final Morena selection mechanism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJulieta Ramírez Padilla 64.9%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 16%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra 14.6%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez 3.0%
$25,718 Vol.
$25,718 Vol.
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
65%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
16%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
15%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
9%
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
2%
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
2%
Gina Cruz Blackledge
2%
Juan Carlos Hank
1%
Víctor Galicia
1%
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
<1%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
<1%
Héctor Osuna Jaime
<1%
Gustavo Macalpin
<1%
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
<1%
Ana Daniela García Salgado
<1%
Armando Ayala Robles
<1%
Fernando Castro Trenti
<1%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
<1%
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
<1%
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
<1%
Jorge Ramos Hernández
<1%
Julieta Ramírez Padilla 64.9%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 16%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra 14.6%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez 3.0%
$25,718 Vol.
$25,718 Vol.
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
65%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
16%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
15%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
9%
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
2%
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
2%
Gina Cruz Blackledge
2%
Juan Carlos Hank
1%
Víctor Galicia
1%
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
<1%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
<1%
Héctor Osuna Jaime
<1%
Gustavo Macalpin
<1%
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
<1%
Ana Daniela García Salgado
<1%
Armando Ayala Robles
<1%
Fernando Castro Trenti
<1%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
<1%
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
<1%
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
<1%
Jorge Ramos Hernández
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Julieta Ramírez Padilla leads trader pricing at 60.3% as the frontrunner to secure Morena’s nomination and win the June 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages within the dominant party. Multiple June and July 2026 surveys placed her at 39–44% among Morena aspirants, well ahead of Ismael Burgueño Ruiz (17–20%) and others such as Montserrat Caballero Ramírez and Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas. Morena maintains a roughly 20-point lead in statewide voting intention over the PAN, consistent with its control of the governorship and major municipalities. Ramírez, a senator on leave with ties to outgoing Governor Marina del Pilar Ávila, has conducted extensive territorial work and legislative reporting; Burgueño, Tijuana’s mayor on leave, has held large rallies while clearing certain federal inquiries. Internal party surveys and registration processes continue to shape positioning ahead of the final Morena selection mechanism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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