Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms drives the 65.5% trader consensus that articles of impeachment will pass before President Trump's term ends in January 2029. Markets price Democratic House victory odds near 85%, which would shift impeachment authority to the new majority starting in 2027. Several House Democrats have already introduced resolutions citing issues such as immigration enforcement and constitutional compliance. The current Republican majority makes near-term action unlikely, as reflected in separate contracts showing under 3% odds by the end of 2026. Senate conviction would still require a two-thirds vote, an outcome markets assess as far less probable even under divided government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated66% chance
$101,816 Vol.
$101,816 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
66% chance
$101,816 Vol.
$101,816 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms drives the 65.5% trader consensus that articles of impeachment will pass before President Trump's term ends in January 2029. Markets price Democratic House victory odds near 85%, which would shift impeachment authority to the new majority starting in 2027. Several House Democrats have already introduced resolutions citing issues such as immigration enforcement and constitutional compliance. The current Republican majority makes near-term action unlikely, as reflected in separate contracts showing under 3% odds by the end of 2026. Senate conviction would still require a two-thirds vote, an outcome markets assess as far less probable even under divided government.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$101,816End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms drives the 65.5% trader consensus that articles of impeachment will pass before President Trump's term ends in January 2029. Markets price Democratic House victory odds near 85%, which would shift impeachment authority to the new majority starting in 2027. Several House Democrats have already introduced resolutions citing issues such as immigration enforcement and constitutional compliance. The current Republican majority makes near-term action unlikely, as reflected in separate contracts showing under 3% odds by the end of 2026. Senate conviction would still require a two-thirds vote, an outcome markets assess as far less probable even under divided government.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$101,816End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms drives the 65.5% trader consensus that articles of impeachment will pass before President Trump's term ends in January 2029. Markets price Democratic House victory odds near 85%, which would shift impeachment authority to the new majority starting in 2027. Several House Democrats have already introduced resolutions citing issues such as immigration enforcement and constitutional compliance. The current Republican majority makes near-term action unlikely, as reflected in separate contracts showing under 3% odds by the end of 2026. Senate conviction would still require a two-thirds vote, an outcome markets assess as far less probable even under divided government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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