Democrats' strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 65.5% trader consensus for impeachment before the term ends. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, blocking any floor action on recent resolutions such as H.Res.1486, but prediction markets assign Democrats roughly 70-85% odds of flipping the chamber. A new Democratic majority would assume power in January 2027 with roughly two years remaining, providing institutional tools including Judiciary Committee leadership to advance articles. Historical precedent shows the House has impeached presidents on party-line votes when one side holds the majority, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Short-term contracts through 2026 trade near zero, underscoring that the probability hinges on post-midterm control rather than immediate developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated65% chance
$101,816 Vol.
$101,816 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
65% chance
$101,816 Vol.
$101,816 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 65.5% trader consensus for impeachment before the term ends. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, blocking any floor action on recent resolutions such as H.Res.1486, but prediction markets assign Democrats roughly 70-85% odds of flipping the chamber. A new Democratic majority would assume power in January 2027 with roughly two years remaining, providing institutional tools including Judiciary Committee leadership to advance articles. Historical precedent shows the House has impeached presidents on party-line votes when one side holds the majority, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Short-term contracts through 2026 trade near zero, underscoring that the probability hinges on post-midterm control rather than immediate developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$101,816End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 65.5% trader consensus for impeachment before the term ends. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, blocking any floor action on recent resolutions such as H.Res.1486, but prediction markets assign Democrats roughly 70-85% odds of flipping the chamber. A new Democratic majority would assume power in January 2027 with roughly two years remaining, providing institutional tools including Judiciary Committee leadership to advance articles. Historical precedent shows the House has impeached presidents on party-line votes when one side holds the majority, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Short-term contracts through 2026 trade near zero, underscoring that the probability hinges on post-midterm control rather than immediate developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$101,816End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats' strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 65.5% trader consensus for impeachment before the term ends. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, blocking any floor action on recent resolutions such as H.Res.1486, but prediction markets assign Democrats roughly 70-85% odds of flipping the chamber. A new Democratic majority would assume power in January 2027 with roughly two years remaining, providing institutional tools including Judiciary Committee leadership to advance articles. Historical precedent shows the House has impeached presidents on party-line votes when one side holds the majority, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Short-term contracts through 2026 trade near zero, underscoring that the probability hinges on post-midterm control rather than immediate developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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