Republican control of the House and unified GOP opposition to restricting military assistance form the core driver behind the 96% trader consensus against passage by September 30. Recent floor votes on related amendments, including one offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to the State Department appropriations bill, failed along party lines with only a single Republican in support, while Democratic leadership largely opposed conditioning or cutting the $3.3 billion annual Foreign Military Financing package. The narrow remaining calendar, ongoing focus on the NDAA and other must-pass measures, and institutional resistance to altering long-standing aid commitments under the 2016 memorandum further limit prospects. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected procedural maneuver in the final weeks or a sudden bipartisan coalition forming around new conditions tied to specific policy developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican control of the House and unified GOP opposition to restricting military assistance form the core driver behind the 96% trader consensus against passage by September 30. Recent floor votes on related amendments, including one offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to the State Department appropriations bill, failed along party lines with only a single Republican in support, while Democratic leadership largely opposed conditioning or cutting the $3.3 billion annual Foreign Military Financing package. The narrow remaining calendar, ongoing focus on the NDAA and other must-pass measures, and institutional resistance to altering long-standing aid commitments under the 2016 memorandum further limit prospects. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected procedural maneuver in the final weeks or a sudden bipartisan coalition forming around new conditions tied to specific policy developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,972End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican control of the House and unified GOP opposition to restricting military assistance form the core driver behind the 96% trader consensus against passage by September 30. Recent floor votes on related amendments, including one offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to the State Department appropriations bill, failed along party lines with only a single Republican in support, while Democratic leadership largely opposed conditioning or cutting the $3.3 billion annual Foreign Military Financing package. The narrow remaining calendar, ongoing focus on the NDAA and other must-pass measures, and institutional resistance to altering long-standing aid commitments under the 2016 memorandum further limit prospects. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected procedural maneuver in the final weeks or a sudden bipartisan coalition forming around new conditions tied to specific policy developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,972End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of the House and unified GOP opposition to restricting military assistance form the core driver behind the 96% trader consensus against passage by September 30. Recent floor votes on related amendments, including one offered by Rep. Thomas Massie to the State Department appropriations bill, failed along party lines with only a single Republican in support, while Democratic leadership largely opposed conditioning or cutting the $3.3 billion annual Foreign Military Financing package. The narrow remaining calendar, ongoing focus on the NDAA and other must-pass measures, and institutional resistance to altering long-standing aid commitments under the 2016 memorandum further limit prospects. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected procedural maneuver in the final weeks or a sudden bipartisan coalition forming around new conditions tied to specific policy developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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