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Climate & Science·Weather

Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

icon for Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
Climate & Science·Weather

Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

42% chance
Polymarket
NEW
42% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No". The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls. Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release. If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".The modest count of 12 billion-dollar U.S. weather and climate disasters through June 2026, dominated by severe convective storms and ranking only fifth among January–June periods since 1980, underpins the market-implied 54.5% probability that the annual record of 28 events set in 2023 will not be broken. Trader consensus reflects the challenge of reaching that threshold in the remaining months despite elevated recent baselines, with Climate Central data showing 23 events in 2025 and 27 in 2024. Key uncertainties include the intensity and U.S. landfall frequency of the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season, the pace of additional costly severe storms or heat/drought events, and final loss assessments for borderline cases such as Tropical Storm Arthur. Updated seasonal outlooks and post-season tallies from monitoring agencies could shift odds if activity accelerates markedly.

This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".

The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.

Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.

If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No". The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls. Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release. If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Volume
$41
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No". The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls. Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release. If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".The modest count of 12 billion-dollar U.S. weather and climate disasters through June 2026, dominated by severe convective storms and ranking only fifth among January–June periods since 1980, underpins the market-implied 54.5% probability that the annual record of 28 events set in 2023 will not be broken. Trader consensus reflects the challenge of reaching that threshold in the remaining months despite elevated recent baselines, with Climate Central data showing 23 events in 2025 and 27 in 2024. Key uncertainties include the intensity and U.S. landfall frequency of the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season, the pace of additional costly severe storms or heat/drought events, and final loss assessments for borderline cases such as Tropical Storm Arthur. Updated seasonal outlooks and post-season tallies from monitoring agencies could shift odds if activity accelerates markedly.

This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".

The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.

Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.

If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No". The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls. Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release. If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Volume
$41
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 42% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 42¢, the market collectively assigns a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?" is 42% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.