Provisional Met Office data released on September 1, 2026, show summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C—1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and the highest in records dating to 1884—surpassing 2025’s 16.1 °C. Multiple heatwaves produced 40 days above 30 °C, nine above 35 °C, and 54 station all-time maxima, while attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations underpin the 96.9 % market-implied probability for a record outcome. Final data verification or minor methodological adjustments remain possible but are unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over prior records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
97% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
97% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Provisional Met Office data released on September 1, 2026, show summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C—1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and the highest in records dating to 1884—surpassing 2025’s 16.1 °C. Multiple heatwaves produced 40 days above 30 °C, nine above 35 °C, and 54 station all-time maxima, while attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations underpin the 96.9 % market-implied probability for a record outcome. Final data verification or minor methodological adjustments remain possible but are unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over prior records.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,354End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Provisional Met Office data released on September 1, 2026, show summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C—1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and the highest in records dating to 1884—surpassing 2025’s 16.1 °C. Multiple heatwaves produced 40 days above 30 °C, nine above 35 °C, and 54 station all-time maxima, while attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations underpin the 96.9 % market-implied probability for a record outcome. Final data verification or minor methodological adjustments remain possible but are unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over prior records.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,354End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Provisional Met Office data released on September 1, 2026, show summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C—1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and the highest in records dating to 1884—surpassing 2025’s 16.1 °C. Multiple heatwaves produced 40 days above 30 °C, nine above 35 °C, and 54 station all-time maxima, while attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations underpin the 96.9 % market-implied probability for a record outcome. Final data verification or minor methodological adjustments remain possible but are unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over prior records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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