Iran's Islamic Penal Code, rooted in Sharia law and subject to oversight by the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The conservative composition of the Majlis and absence of reform proposals or parliamentary action reinforce this position, with recent reporting confirming continued enforcement and no policy shifts. Trader consensus at 97.9% reflects these institutional and constitutional barriers. Only improbable developments such as a post-Khamenei leadership transition or broader regime upheaval could open pathways to change before the December 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$74,692 Vol.
$74,692 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$74,692 Vol.
$74,692 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, rooted in Sharia law and subject to oversight by the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The conservative composition of the Majlis and absence of reform proposals or parliamentary action reinforce this position, with recent reporting confirming continued enforcement and no policy shifts. Trader consensus at 97.9% reflects these institutional and constitutional barriers. Only improbable developments such as a post-Khamenei leadership transition or broader regime upheaval could open pathways to change before the December 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Volume
$74,692End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, rooted in Sharia law and subject to oversight by the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The conservative composition of the Majlis and absence of reform proposals or parliamentary action reinforce this position, with recent reporting confirming continued enforcement and no policy shifts. Trader consensus at 97.9% reflects these institutional and constitutional barriers. Only improbable developments such as a post-Khamenei leadership transition or broader regime upheaval could open pathways to change before the December 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$74,692End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Penal Code, rooted in Sharia law and subject to oversight by the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The conservative composition of the Majlis and absence of reform proposals or parliamentary action reinforce this position, with recent reporting confirming continued enforcement and no policy shifts. Trader consensus at 97.9% reflects these institutional and constitutional barriers. Only improbable developments such as a post-Khamenei leadership transition or broader regime upheaval could open pathways to change before the December 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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