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World·Macro Indicators

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

icon for Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
World·Macro Indicators

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

84% chance
Polymarket
NEW
84% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident inflows through the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals to 385,000 while holding permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually. Statistics Canada data show non-permanent residents already declining rapidly, producing quarterly population drops of 76,000 and 103,000 in late 2025 and another 55,000 in the first quarter of 2026—the first annual national decline on record. These outflows, concentrated among international students and temporary workers, exceed natural increase and permanent admissions, with projections indicating flat or negative growth for the full year. The sustained policy shift, aimed at reducing the non-permanent share below 5 percent by end-2027, underpins trader expectations that 2026 will register the largest annual contraction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,827
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident inflows through the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals to 385,000 while holding permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually. Statistics Canada data show non-permanent residents already declining rapidly, producing quarterly population drops of 76,000 and 103,000 in late 2025 and another 55,000 in the first quarter of 2026—the first annual national decline on record. These outflows, concentrated among international students and temporary workers, exceed natural increase and permanent admissions, with projections indicating flat or negative growth for the full year. The sustained policy shift, aimed at reducing the non-permanent share below 5 percent by end-2027, underpins trader expectations that 2026 will register the largest annual contraction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,827
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 84% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 84¢, the market collectively assigns a 84% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" is 84% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 84% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.