Recent polling across multiple firms shows consistent majority support for Alberta remaining a province of Canada, with 61–74% favoring that option on the October 19, 2026 referendum question and only 22–35% backing the alternative of commencing the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith’s May 2026 announcement placed this non-binding question on the ballot alongside others on federal-provincial relations after citizen petitions reached signature thresholds, yet court rulings citing inadequate First Nations consultation on treaty rights have complicated direct separation efforts. Actual independence would still require subsequent steps under the Clarity Act and federal approval, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% “No” probability.