Recent US-Iran military exchanges in early September 2026, including American strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory actions against regional sites, have renewed tensions and tested the fragile June Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire. That accord established a 60-day negotiation window on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with high-level talks in Switzerland producing working groups and deconfliction mechanisms. Subsequent implementation disputes, including Iranian vessel incidents in the Strait and stalled technical follow-ups, have limited further diplomatic rounds. Key variables for additional talks by year-end include sustained de-escalation signals, mediator involvement from Qatar and Pakistan, and progress on core sticking points such as nuclear inspections and economic measures. Traders assess these developments against the risk of renewed escalation or prolonged stalemate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$387,029 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
32%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
28%
Jared Kushner
28%
Abbas Araghchi
28%
J.D. Vance
25%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Ishaq Dar
18%
Nick Stewart
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Marco Rubio
13%
Rafael Grossi
11%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
11%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Donald Trump
6%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Masoud Pezeshkian
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
3%
Mojtaba Khamenei
3%
$387,029 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$26,229 Vol.
32%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$16,848 Vol.
28%
Jared Kushner
$21,149 Vol.
28%
Abbas Araghchi
$9,176 Vol.
28%
J.D. Vance
$26,812 Vol.
25%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,535 Vol.
24%
Ishaq Dar
$23,245 Vol.
18%
Nick Stewart
$12,950 Vol.
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,967 Vol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$30,796 Vol.
17%
Marco Rubio
$13,492 Vol.
13%
Rafael Grossi
$32,194 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$39,953 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
$4,848 Vol.
11%
Esmail Qaani
$11,470 Vol.
7%
Donald Trump
$9,067 Vol.
6%
Pete Hegseth
$19,414 Vol.
6%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$22,269 Vol.
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
$12,156 Vol.
3%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$21,460 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent US-Iran military exchanges in early September 2026, including American strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory actions against regional sites, have renewed tensions and tested the fragile June Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire. That accord established a 60-day negotiation window on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with high-level talks in Switzerland producing working groups and deconfliction mechanisms. Subsequent implementation disputes, including Iranian vessel incidents in the Strait and stalled technical follow-ups, have limited further diplomatic rounds. Key variables for additional talks by year-end include sustained de-escalation signals, mediator involvement from Qatar and Pakistan, and progress on core sticking points such as nuclear inspections and economic measures. Traders assess these developments against the risk of renewed escalation or prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$387,029End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent US-Iran military exchanges in early September 2026, including American strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory actions against regional sites, have renewed tensions and tested the fragile June Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire. That accord established a 60-day negotiation window on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with high-level talks in Switzerland producing working groups and deconfliction mechanisms. Subsequent implementation disputes, including Iranian vessel incidents in the Strait and stalled technical follow-ups, have limited further diplomatic rounds. Key variables for additional talks by year-end include sustained de-escalation signals, mediator involvement from Qatar and Pakistan, and progress on core sticking points such as nuclear inspections and economic measures. Traders assess these developments against the risk of renewed escalation or prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$387,029End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran military exchanges in early September 2026, including American strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory actions against regional sites, have renewed tensions and tested the fragile June Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire. That accord established a 60-day negotiation window on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with high-level talks in Switzerland producing working groups and deconfliction mechanisms. Subsequent implementation disputes, including Iranian vessel incidents in the Strait and stalled technical follow-ups, have limited further diplomatic rounds. Key variables for additional talks by year-end include sustained de-escalation signals, mediator involvement from Qatar and Pakistan, and progress on core sticking points such as nuclear inspections and economic measures. Traders assess these developments against the risk of renewed escalation or prolonged stalemate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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