Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
Politics·President

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

icon for Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
Politics·President

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Andy Beshear 29%

Gavin Newsom 19.1%

Kamala Harris 13%

Pete Buttigieg 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Andy Beshear 29%

Gavin Newsom 19.1%

Kamala Harris 13%

Pete Buttigieg 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Andy Beshear

$1,919 Vol.

29%

Gavin Newsom

$3,334 Vol.

19%

Kamala Harris

$550 Vol.

13%

Pete Buttigieg

$622 Vol.

13%

Rahm Emanuel

$687 Vol.

10%

Ro Khanna

$556 Vol.

10%

Stephen A. Smith

$363 Vol.

5%

Josh Shapiro

$306 Vol.

4%

Jon Ossoff

$306 Vol.

2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$391 Vol.

1%

Jon Stewart

$369 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democratic candidate has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of September 2026, leaving the field wide open ahead of the November midterms and fueling the 50% share on "Other." Potential contenders have focused on midterm surrogacy, fundraising, and early-state travel to build profiles without committing. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear leads listed options at 28.5% after chairing the Democratic Governors Association and making repeated public appearances testing moderate appeal in Republican-leaning areas. California Governor Gavin Newsom sits at 19.1% due to high-visibility opposition to the Trump administration, a recent memoir, and substantial PAC resources. Former Vice President Kamala Harris holds 13% amid polling volatility, bolstered by the DNC's new primary calendar front-loading South Carolina. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg follows at 12.5% through ongoing unity events and name recognition. Traders price these probabilities based on visible positioning rather than confirmed timelines.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,403
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democratic candidate has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of September 2026, leaving the field wide open ahead of the November midterms and fueling the 50% share on "Other." Potential contenders have focused on midterm surrogacy, fundraising, and early-state travel to build profiles without committing. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear leads listed options at 28.5% after chairing the Democratic Governors Association and making repeated public appearances testing moderate appeal in Republican-leaning areas. California Governor Gavin Newsom sits at 19.1% due to high-visibility opposition to the Trump administration, a recent memoir, and substantial PAC resources. Former Vice President Kamala Harris holds 13% amid polling volatility, bolstered by the DNC's new primary calendar front-loading South Carolina. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg follows at 12.5% through ongoing unity events and name recognition. Traders price these probabilities based on visible positioning rather than confirmed timelines.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,403
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?

Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?

42%
icon for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?

62%
icon for Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2028?

Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2028?

90%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Andy Beshear" at 28%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" is "Andy Beshear" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.