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icon for WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Politics·Midterm MOV

WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

icon for WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Politics·Midterm MOV

WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25% 44%

Republican 35%+ 42%

Republican 30-35% 42%

Republican 25-30% 42%

Polymarket
NEW

Republican 20-25% 44%

Republican 35%+ 42%

Republican 30-35% 42%

Republican 25-30% 42%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Republican 35%+

Republican 35%+

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Republican 30-35%

Republican 30-35%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Republican 25-30%

Republican 25-30%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Republican 20-25%

Republican 20-25%

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Republican 15-20%

Republican 15-20%

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Republican 10-15%

Republican 10-15%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Republican 5-10%

Republican 5-10%

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Republican 0-5%

Republican 0-5%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Democrat Wins

Democrat Wins

$0 Vol.

41%

The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with an R+10 partisan voter index and a 14.5-point Trump margin in 2024, setting baseline expectations for Republican nominee Amanda McKinney against Democrat John Duresky after the August 4 top-two primary. McKinney consolidated GOP support as the Trump-endorsed Yakima County commissioner while Duresky advanced as the unified Democratic choice, yet the open-seat dynamics and limited post-primary polling leave the exact victory margin uncertain across multiple buckets. Trader pricing reflects this through closely matched probabilities on Republican margins from single digits to the mid-30s alongside a Democrat-win option, underscoring how turnout in rural central Washington counties, national midterm conditions, and candidate-specific mobilization could shift the final spread without altering the favored outcome.

The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with an R+10 partisan voter index and a 14.5-point Trump margin in 2024, setting baseline expectations for Republican nominee Amanda McKinney against Democrat John Duresky after the August 4 top-two primary. McKinney consolidated GOP support as the Trump-endorsed Yakima County commissioner while Duresky advanced as the unified Democratic choice, yet the open-seat dynamics and limited post-primary polling leave the exact victory margin uncertain across multiple buckets. Trader pricing reflects this through closely matched probabilities on Republican margins from single digits to the mid-30s alongside a Democrat-win option, underscoring how turnout in rural central Washington counties, national midterm conditions, and candidate-specific mobilization could shift the final spread without altering the favored outcome.

The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Republican 20-25%" at 44%, followed by "Republican 35%+" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory" is "Republican 20-25%" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican 35%+" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.