Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s advancement through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 45 percent of the vote, ahead of Republican Edwin Feller, reflects the district’s established Democratic lean and the incumbent’s long record of constituent service and fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential results favoring Democrats. Traders price Democratic victory at 94.5 percent, viewing the structural advantages and absence of competitive Republican challengers as decisive. A late national political shift, unusually low Democratic turnout in mail voting, or unexpected scandal could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and historical voting patterns to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-02 House Election Winner
WA-02 House Election Winner
$20,552 Vol.
$20,552 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$20,552 Vol.
$20,552 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,157 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$7,395 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s advancement through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 45 percent of the vote, ahead of Republican Edwin Feller, reflects the district’s established Democratic lean and the incumbent’s long record of constituent service and fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential results favoring Democrats. Traders price Democratic victory at 94.5 percent, viewing the structural advantages and absence of competitive Republican challengers as decisive. A late national political shift, unusually low Democratic turnout in mail voting, or unexpected scandal could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and historical voting patterns to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$20,552End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s advancement through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 45 percent of the vote, ahead of Republican Edwin Feller, reflects the district’s established Democratic lean and the incumbent’s long record of constituent service and fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential results favoring Democrats. Traders price Democratic victory at 94.5 percent, viewing the structural advantages and absence of competitive Republican challengers as decisive. A late national political shift, unusually low Democratic turnout in mail voting, or unexpected scandal could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and historical voting patterns to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,552End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s advancement through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 45 percent of the vote, ahead of Republican Edwin Feller, reflects the district’s established Democratic lean and the incumbent’s long record of constituent service and fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential results favoring Democrats. Traders price Democratic victory at 94.5 percent, viewing the structural advantages and absence of competitive Republican challengers as decisive. A late national political shift, unusually low Democratic turnout in mail voting, or unexpected scandal could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and historical voting patterns to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions