Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +1.8°C and models favoring further strengthening, represent the dominant factor shaping September 2026 U.S. tornado expectations. This phase typically enhances upper-level wind shear and alters the jet stream, often suppressing organized severe weather compared to neutral or La Niña patterns, though September climatology already features lower baseline activity (historical averages near 74 tornadoes). Early-month outbreaks in the Northeast and Midwest illustrate residual instability, yet widespread drought and above-normal temperatures across the Plains and South further limit moisture and lift. Trader odds clustered around the 50–74 and 75–124 bins reflect uncertainty over whether El Niño suppression will dominate or if late-season tropical influences and regional variability produce near- or slightly above-average totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
75 - 124 50%
50 - 74 49%
25 - 49 48%
Under 25 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
16%
25 - 49
48%
50 - 74
49%
75 - 124
50%
125 or more
16%
75 - 124 50%
50 - 74 49%
25 - 49 48%
Under 25 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$0 Vol.
16%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
48%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
49%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
50%
125 or more
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +1.8°C and models favoring further strengthening, represent the dominant factor shaping September 2026 U.S. tornado expectations. This phase typically enhances upper-level wind shear and alters the jet stream, often suppressing organized severe weather compared to neutral or La Niña patterns, though September climatology already features lower baseline activity (historical averages near 74 tornadoes). Early-month outbreaks in the Northeast and Midwest illustrate residual instability, yet widespread drought and above-normal temperatures across the Plains and South further limit moisture and lift. Trader odds clustered around the 50–74 and 75–124 bins reflect uncertainty over whether El Niño suppression will dominate or if late-season tropical influences and regional variability produce near- or slightly above-average totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +1.8°C and models favoring further strengthening, represent the dominant factor shaping September 2026 U.S. tornado expectations. This phase typically enhances upper-level wind shear and alters the jet stream, often suppressing organized severe weather compared to neutral or La Niña patterns, though September climatology already features lower baseline activity (historical averages near 74 tornadoes). Early-month outbreaks in the Northeast and Midwest illustrate residual instability, yet widespread drought and above-normal temperatures across the Plains and South further limit moisture and lift. Trader odds clustered around the 50–74 and 75–124 bins reflect uncertainty over whether El Niño suppression will dominate or if late-season tropical influences and regional variability produce near- or slightly above-average totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +1.8°C and models favoring further strengthening, represent the dominant factor shaping September 2026 U.S. tornado expectations. This phase typically enhances upper-level wind shear and alters the jet stream, often suppressing organized severe weather compared to neutral or La Niña patterns, though September climatology already features lower baseline activity (historical averages near 74 tornadoes). Early-month outbreaks in the Northeast and Midwest illustrate residual instability, yet widespread drought and above-normal temperatures across the Plains and South further limit moisture and lift. Trader odds clustered around the 50–74 and 75–124 bins reflect uncertainty over whether El Niño suppression will dominate or if late-season tropical influences and regional variability produce near- or slightly above-average totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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