Republican incumbent Michael Cloud secured his party's nomination with 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 27th congressional district, while Democrat Tanya Lloyd prevailed in her primary. The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+14 under the 2025 redrawn map, which expanded Republican advantages across much of the Coastal Bend and surrounding areas. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ have rated the contest Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025, reflecting consistent structural advantages and the absence of competitive general-election polling. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 91 percent for the Republican nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-27 House Election Winner
TX-27 House Election Winner
$36,279 Vol.
$36,279 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
$36,279 Vol.
$36,279 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$24,991 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$11,287 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Michael Cloud secured his party's nomination with 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 27th congressional district, while Democrat Tanya Lloyd prevailed in her primary. The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+14 under the 2025 redrawn map, which expanded Republican advantages across much of the Coastal Bend and surrounding areas. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ have rated the contest Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025, reflecting consistent structural advantages and the absence of competitive general-election polling. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 91 percent for the Republican nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$36,279End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Michael Cloud secured his party's nomination with 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 27th congressional district, while Democrat Tanya Lloyd prevailed in her primary. The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+14 under the 2025 redrawn map, which expanded Republican advantages across much of the Coastal Bend and surrounding areas. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ have rated the contest Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025, reflecting consistent structural advantages and the absence of competitive general-election polling. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 91 percent for the Republican nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,279End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Michael Cloud secured his party's nomination with 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 27th congressional district, while Democrat Tanya Lloyd prevailed in her primary. The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+14 under the 2025 redrawn map, which expanded Republican advantages across much of the Coastal Bend and surrounding areas. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ have rated the contest Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025, reflecting consistent structural advantages and the absence of competitive general-election polling. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 91 percent for the Republican nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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