**Recent polling shows the Swedish Social Democrats (S) hovering near 29%, with a notable late-campaign slump pulling support into the 27-30% range that commands the highest market probability.** Aggregators updated through early September place S at approximately 29.1%, down from mid-30s levels in spring and early summer polls, as voters shift toward the Left Party and Centre Party. Individual surveys released in the final week, including those from Demoskop, Verian, Novus, and Indikator Opinion, have recorded figures between 25.8% and 29.2%, with several highlighting accelerated losses for S amid a tightening overall race between the centre-left opposition and the Tidö government bloc. The campaign's focus on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, security, and energy has coincided with this movement, while the Liberals remain below the 4% parliamentary threshold in most measurements. With the September 13 election only days away, the current trader consensus in the 27-30% band aligns closely with the most recent weighted polling averages and the observed downward trajectory for S.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
27-30% 48%
<27% 29%
30-33% 20%
33%+ 2.2%
$46,202 Vol.
$46,202 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<27%
29%
27-30%
48%
30-33%
20%
33%+
2%
27-30% 48%
<27% 29%
30-33% 20%
33%+ 2.2%
$46,202 Vol.
$46,202 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<27%
$18,737 Vol.
29%
27-30%
$11,821 Vol.
48%
30-33%
$10,542 Vol.
20%
33%+
$5,102 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling shows the Swedish Social Democrats (S) hovering near 29%, with a notable late-campaign slump pulling support into the 27-30% range that commands the highest market probability.**
Aggregators updated through early September place S at approximately 29.1%, down from mid-30s levels in spring and early summer polls, as voters shift toward the Left Party and Centre Party. Individual surveys released in the final week, including those from Demoskop, Verian, Novus, and Indikator Opinion, have recorded figures between 25.8% and 29.2%, with several highlighting accelerated losses for S amid a tightening overall race between the centre-left opposition and the Tidö government bloc.
The campaign's focus on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, security, and energy has coincided with this movement, while the Liberals remain below the 4% parliamentary threshold in most measurements. With the September 13 election only days away, the current trader consensus in the 27-30% band aligns closely with the most recent weighted polling averages and the observed downward trajectory for S.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:42 AM ET
Volume
$46,202End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling shows the Swedish Social Democrats (S) hovering near 29%, with a notable late-campaign slump pulling support into the 27-30% range that commands the highest market probability.**
Aggregators updated through early September place S at approximately 29.1%, down from mid-30s levels in spring and early summer polls, as voters shift toward the Left Party and Centre Party. Individual surveys released in the final week, including those from Demoskop, Verian, Novus, and Indikator Opinion, have recorded figures between 25.8% and 29.2%, with several highlighting accelerated losses for S amid a tightening overall race between the centre-left opposition and the Tidö government bloc.
The campaign's focus on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, security, and energy has coincided with this movement, while the Liberals remain below the 4% parliamentary threshold in most measurements. With the September 13 election only days away, the current trader consensus in the 27-30% band aligns closely with the most recent weighted polling averages and the observed downward trajectory for S.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$46,202End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling shows the Swedish Social Democrats (S) hovering near 29%, with a notable late-campaign slump pulling support into the 27-30% range that commands the highest market probability.** Aggregators updated through early September place S at approximately 29.1%, down from mid-30s levels in spring and early summer polls, as voters shift toward the Left Party and Centre Party. Individual surveys released in the final week, including those from Demoskop, Verian, Novus, and Indikator Opinion, have recorded figures between 25.8% and 29.2%, with several highlighting accelerated losses for S amid a tightening overall race between the centre-left opposition and the Tidö government bloc. The campaign's focus on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, security, and energy has coincided with this movement, while the Liberals remain below the 4% parliamentary threshold in most measurements. With the September 13 election only days away, the current trader consensus in the 27-30% band aligns closely with the most recent weighted polling averages and the observed downward trajectory for S.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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