Recent polling averages for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election place the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) between 17.2% and 17.5%, reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1% result in 2022 amid voter shifts toward the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, supported by SD) trails the centre-left opposition in most surveys, with the race tightening in August as economic pressures, crime, immigration, and energy costs dominate the campaign. Latest individual polls, including Novus and Indikator Opinion, show M fluctuating just above or near the 17% threshold, creating uncertainty around final turnout and late swings. Trader consensus on the over side at 64% aligns with these aggregates while acknowledging the narrow margin and potential for bloc dynamics or last-week developments to influence the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling averages for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election place the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) between 17.2% and 17.5%, reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1% result in 2022 amid voter shifts toward the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, supported by SD) trails the centre-left opposition in most surveys, with the race tightening in August as economic pressures, crime, immigration, and energy costs dominate the campaign. Latest individual polls, including Novus and Indikator Opinion, show M fluctuating just above or near the 17% threshold, creating uncertainty around final turnout and late swings. Trader consensus on the over side at 64% aligns with these aggregates while acknowledging the narrow margin and potential for bloc dynamics or last-week developments to influence the outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$713End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling averages for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election place the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) between 17.2% and 17.5%, reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1% result in 2022 amid voter shifts toward the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, supported by SD) trails the centre-left opposition in most surveys, with the race tightening in August as economic pressures, crime, immigration, and energy costs dominate the campaign. Latest individual polls, including Novus and Indikator Opinion, show M fluctuating just above or near the 17% threshold, creating uncertainty around final turnout and late swings. Trader consensus on the over side at 64% aligns with these aggregates while acknowledging the narrow margin and potential for bloc dynamics or last-week developments to influence the outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$713End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election place the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) between 17.2% and 17.5%, reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1% result in 2022 amid voter shifts toward the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, supported by SD) trails the centre-left opposition in most surveys, with the race tightening in August as economic pressures, crime, immigration, and energy costs dominate the campaign. Latest individual polls, including Novus and Indikator Opinion, show M fluctuating just above or near the 17% threshold, creating uncertainty around final turnout and late swings. Trader consensus on the over side at 64% aligns with these aggregates while acknowledging the narrow margin and potential for bloc dynamics or last-week developments to influence the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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